***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.07.2016.-24.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 30.1 29.9 29.4 -0.3 51.7 49.2 27.6 29.8 30.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 29.6 30.2 29.9 0.2 56.9 54.2 27.1 29.1 30.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 29.8 29.8 30.0 0.0 54.2 52.0 27.8 29.4 30.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 23.0 22.7 28.3 0.1 51.8 52.5 21.0 22.7 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 30.3 29.8 28.4 0.1 53.3 52.2 28.5 29.7 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 28.5 28.8 26.3 0.5 57.9 56.8 27.1 28.1 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 29.3 29.7 29.5 -0.1 54.4 50.9 27.1 28.8 30.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 18.0 18.0 26.8 0.4 58.1 56.5 16.0 17.6 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 29.4 29.6 28.5 0.1 55.3 53.3 28.0 28.9 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 29.5 29.8 27.3 0.3 56.8 55.5 27.2 29.2 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 29.7 29.6 28.4 0.4 56.6 56.5 28.0 29.2 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 28.7 28.8 28.3 0.5 59.3 57.9 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 29.9 30.3 27.4 0.5 59.2 57.0 28.3 29.5 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 29.4 29.9 28.1 0.5 63.3 57.6 27.2 28.8 30.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 30.9 30.8 29.5 0.2 53.1 53.8 29.1 30.8 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 30.6 30.9 28.1 0.5 58.1 57.2 29.1 30.1 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 28.5 30.2 29.9 0.5 62.5 57.6 26.7 28.0 30.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 28.6 28.8 26.6 0.3 56.7 55.3 26.8 28.2 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 29.1 29.4 30.1 0.4 59.4 56.2 27.1 28.7 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 24.2 24.8 24.3 0.3 58.0 55.1 22.7 23.8 25.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 29.5 29.5 29.2 -0.1 52.7 50.8 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 29.2 30.4 30.0 0.8 66.9 60.3 27.2 28.7 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 29.1 29.9 30.2 0.6 63.5 58.8 27.5 28.6 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 28.9 29.1 28.1 0.3 58.6 55.7 26.8 28.5 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 29.9 29.9 28.0 -0.2 51.9 49.3 28.0 29.5 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 29.6 30.4 28.3 0.9 64.1 61.5 28.3 29.1 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 29.3 29.4 28.6 -0.2 53.2 50.1 27.3 28.9 30.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 30.6 30.5 28.8 0.3 53.6 54.2 29.5 30.3 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 23.8 23.7 25.5 0.3 57.2 54.7 22.2 23.5 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 29.4 30.0 29.7 -0.1 54.6 51.0 27.1 28.9 30.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------