***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.07.2016.-17.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 26.3 26.6 27.8 -1.2 34.2 36.0 26.4 27.3 29.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 27.1 27.1 28.2 -0.8 37.6 41.9 27.0 27.9 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 26.6 27.2 28.3 -1.0 37.3 38.9 27.2 27.8 28.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 19.9 20.3 26.8 -0.8 40.6 40.7 19.9 20.7 21.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 27.0 27.3 26.9 -0.9 39.5 39.4 27.3 28.2 28.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 27.5 26.9 24.9 -0.4 48.9 45.9 26.0 26.9 28.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 26.9 27.1 27.9 -1.0 34.3 38.6 27.1 28.2 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 15.0 14.9 25.2 -0.7 40.8 42.8 14.8 15.8 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 26.5 27.4 26.9 -0.9 41.8 40.0 26.5 27.7 28.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 26.5 27.1 25.7 -0.7 41.0 41.8 26.6 27.3 28.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 26.5 27.1 26.8 -0.6 42.9 43.8 26.7 27.6 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 27.6 26.5 26.7 -0.5 43.7 44.4 25.7 26.9 28.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 26.9 27.5 25.9 -0.6 43.5 43.9 27.2 27.7 28.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 26.6 27.3 26.5 -0.4 48.7 46.4 27.0 27.4 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 29.5 28.8 28.1 -0.5 45.5 44.3 28.5 28.9 30.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 27.5 28.4 26.6 -0.5 43.5 44.2 27.9 28.6 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 28.3 27.3 28.3 -0.4 42.8 45.8 26.5 27.8 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 25.6 26.1 24.8 -0.8 41.1 40.9 25.3 26.4 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 26.6 26.7 28.4 -0.6 40.5 43.7 26.4 27.8 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 21.1 21.0 22.5 -0.9 38.8 40.5 20.7 22.1 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 26.5 27.1 27.6 -1.1 36.3 37.4 26.9 27.9 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 28.4 27.8 28.3 -0.2 47.8 49.1 26.8 27.9 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 28.3 27.3 28.5 -0.4 44.3 46.6 26.5 27.7 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 26.3 26.7 26.4 -0.7 41.9 42.4 26.1 27.4 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 26.7 27.5 26.4 -1.2 34.5 37.1 27.4 28.0 29.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 28.4 27.7 26.7 -0.3 48.1 47.2 26.7 27.8 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 26.3 26.7 27.1 -1.1 36.5 37.6 26.4 27.7 28.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 27.7 28.7 27.4 -0.6 43.9 42.7 28.2 28.9 29.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 20.5 20.6 23.8 -0.9 39.0 40.3 20.5 21.4 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 26.5 26.5 28.0 -1.1 35.1 38.3 26.4 28.2 29.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------