***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.07.2016.-10.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 28.8 28.6 28.7 -0.5 47.2 46.7 27.4 28.6 29.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 28.6 28.6 29.2 -0.1 54.4 52.8 27.1 28.1 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 28.5 28.2 29.0 -0.6 49.5 47.1 26.8 28.2 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 22.0 21.5 26.9 -0.1 53.8 51.1 20.0 21.5 22.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 29.2 28.7 27.5 -0.4 51.0 47.8 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 27.7 27.5 25.1 -0.2 54.2 49.5 26.0 27.0 28.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 28.6 28.3 28.9 -0.4 51.0 50.0 26.8 28.2 29.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.5 15.9 25.4 -0.4 48.0 46.2 15.6 16.0 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 28.6 28.1 28.0 -0.3 52.1 48.2 27.1 28.1 29.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 28.4 27.9 26.2 -0.4 48.8 47.0 26.9 28.0 28.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 28.7 28.5 27.8 -0.2 52.5 49.7 27.2 28.4 29.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 27.7 27.4 26.9 -0.2 52.6 49.2 26.2 27.4 28.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 29.2 28.9 27.0 0.0 53.4 50.9 27.5 28.8 29.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 28.3 28.1 27.6 0.0 56.2 51.8 27.0 28.0 28.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 29.8 29.7 29.2 0.2 56.0 54.3 28.5 29.3 30.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 29.6 29.5 27.3 -0.1 53.5 50.3 28.0 29.3 30.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 28.1 28.1 29.3 0.5 59.9 58.3 26.5 27.6 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 27.5 26.9 25.3 -0.5 47.1 46.1 26.1 27.1 27.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 28.0 28.0 29.4 0.1 56.8 54.2 26.8 27.7 28.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 22.9 22.1 23.1 -0.6 44.1 45.0 21.9 22.4 23.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 28.9 28.4 28.7 -0.6 49.8 45.9 26.8 28.4 28.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 29.2 28.9 29.6 1.0 68.2 61.8 27.4 28.2 28.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 28.4 28.5 29.6 0.5 59.5 57.2 26.8 28.2 28.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 27.9 27.6 27.4 -0.3 51.9 48.4 26.4 27.5 28.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 29.3 28.9 27.6 -0.4 49.4 48.3 27.4 28.9 29.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 28.6 28.5 26.6 0.1 54.3 52.0 27.4 28.2 29.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 28.5 28.2 28.1 -0.3 49.7 49.2 26.8 28.2 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 29.7 29.6 27.9 -0.1 54.2 51.4 28.4 29.2 30.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.7 22.1 24.4 -0.6 46.5 45.5 21.4 22.1 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 28.4 28.1 28.9 -0.5 50.3 48.2 27.1 28.1 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------