***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.06.2016.-03.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 28.9 27.9 27.0 -0.7 38.6 38.8 27.5 28.4 29.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 28.4 27.2 27.6 -0.4 40.8 41.9 27.0 27.9 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 28.6 27.0 27.1 -0.9 37.6 37.7 26.8 28.0 28.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 21.4 20.3 24.6 -0.4 44.4 44.0 19.3 21.1 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 28.8 27.7 25.3 -0.9 40.7 39.7 27.2 28.5 30.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 27.4 27.0 23.1 -0.3 49.0 47.5 26.0 27.1 28.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 26.5 27.1 27.3 -0.6 36.1 38.5 26.9 27.8 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 17.4 16.0 23.0 -0.8 41.7 40.6 14.8 17.0 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 28.7 28.0 26.3 -0.7 41.1 41.1 26.5 28.4 29.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 27.9 26.9 24.0 -0.8 41.2 40.6 26.6 27.5 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 28.2 27.7 25.7 -0.7 43.2 42.6 27.0 27.9 29.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 27.8 26.9 24.4 -0.6 46.5 43.7 26.0 27.5 28.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 28.6 28.3 25.4 -0.2 51.8 49.1 27.0 28.2 29.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 27.9 27.3 26.3 -0.2 45.9 45.8 26.8 27.5 29.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 29.2 28.9 27.8 0.0 49.8 50.5 27.8 28.9 30.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 29.5 29.2 25.3 -0.4 47.4 46.2 27.3 29.2 30.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 27.8 27.4 27.7 0.2 49.5 50.2 26.4 27.4 28.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 27.3 26.3 23.1 -0.8 39.6 39.6 25.6 27.0 28.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 28.0 27.3 27.8 -0.2 44.6 45.1 26.3 27.5 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 23.5 22.2 21.0 -0.8 41.1 40.8 21.3 23.0 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 28.3 27.1 27.0 -0.9 38.8 38.5 26.8 27.9 29.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 28.1 28.8 28.2 0.7 61.7 59.8 26.8 27.8 29.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 28.3 28.0 28.0 0.2 52.9 52.4 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 27.6 26.6 25.8 -0.6 42.6 41.3 26.1 27.1 28.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 28.4 27.5 25.9 -0.7 40.2 39.5 27.0 27.9 29.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 28.3 27.9 24.0 -0.2 50.1 48.2 26.6 27.9 29.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 28.2 27.3 26.5 -0.5 41.9 40.7 26.5 27.7 28.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 29.6 29.0 25.9 -0.3 46.8 46.3 27.7 29.3 30.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 23.1 21.6 22.3 -0.9 39.4 39.2 21.4 22.8 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 26.7 26.9 27.4 -0.7 36.4 38.1 26.8 28.0 28.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------