***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.06.2016.-24.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 16.1 16.0 18.6 0.4 67.5 62.3 15.2 15.8 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 16.2 16.2 18.6 0.6 72.2 68.7 15.0 15.5 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 18.2 18.1 18.9 0.4 69.8 63.5 16.7 17.3 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 13.5 13.6 16.7 0.6 72.9 68.7 12.1 12.8 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 14.5 14.5 16.9 0.5 71.8 66.0 13.7 14.1 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 13.4 13.6 14.8 0.7 81.9 74.3 12.5 12.9 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 16.0 16.0 18.6 0.4 60.5 62.5 14.9 15.9 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 9.0 9.2 14.6 0.7 78.2 72.8 7.7 8.3 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 16.0 15.8 17.0 0.6 73.7 68.9 14.5 15.3 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 15.7 15.8 15.5 0.7 77.0 72.0 14.4 15.2 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 15.5 15.6 16.7 0.7 76.1 72.3 14.3 15.0 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 13.5 13.7 15.6 0.7 77.0 72.7 12.4 13.0 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 14.9 15.1 15.3 0.8 82.3 74.9 13.8 14.1 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 16.5 16.7 16.9 0.7 77.8 72.4 15.2 16.0 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 17.0 17.2 18.6 0.8 78.9 75.4 15.7 16.5 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 15.9 16.2 16.1 0.7 78.3 72.5 14.8 15.3 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 16.8 17.1 18.6 0.9 79.3 73.8 15.7 16.4 16.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 14.3 14.5 14.8 0.6 76.4 70.6 13.0 13.5 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 16.1 16.1 18.7 0.7 75.5 71.0 15.1 15.5 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 10.1 10.5 12.6 0.7 80.5 72.5 8.8 9.5 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 15.7 15.7 18.2 0.4 69.6 63.5 14.6 15.0 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 15.7 16.2 18.7 1.0 83.7 76.7 14.6 15.2 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 15.5 15.8 18.8 0.9 80.4 74.9 14.6 14.8 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 16.2 16.3 16.8 0.6 74.2 69.4 14.7 15.8 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 15.6 15.7 17.6 0.5 73.7 65.7 14.8 15.2 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 14.4 14.7 14.7 0.7 79.8 74.0 13.5 13.9 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 15.9 15.8 18.1 0.5 72.3 65.3 14.6 15.1 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 14.7 14.8 17.3 0.7 74.8 71.3 13.8 14.2 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 13.1 13.3 14.1 0.6 76.1 70.7 11.7 12.5 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 16.1 16.4 18.7 0.4 64.7 63.6 15.3 15.9 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------