***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.07.2016.-24.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 16.3 15.9 18.7 0.1 55.7 52.1 14.8 15.8 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.3 18.6 0.3 61.9 56.4 14.9 16.0 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.8 17.8 19.1 0.2 56.4 54.2 16.4 17.3 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 13.3 13.4 16.7 0.1 56.2 52.8 12.2 13.0 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 14.2 14.2 16.6 0.0 54.1 50.7 13.2 13.9 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.0 13.2 15.0 0.4 61.6 58.3 11.8 12.8 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.2 18.7 0.1 57.3 52.9 15.3 15.7 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.7 9.0 14.7 0.4 63.6 58.6 8.0 8.4 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.3 16.7 0.1 55.2 52.4 14.5 15.1 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.4 15.4 0.3 60.2 56.3 14.2 15.0 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 14.8 15.2 16.3 0.2 58.0 55.5 14.2 14.6 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.0 13.2 15.5 0.3 60.7 57.5 12.0 12.7 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.1 13.8 14.6 0.1 53.3 52.8 12.8 13.8 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 16.1 16.0 16.8 0.5 62.6 59.3 15.0 15.8 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 16.5 16.4 18.3 0.2 57.1 55.6 15.9 16.2 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.5 15.7 0.2 55.5 54.2 14.5 15.4 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.8 17.8 18.7 0.6 67.3 59.7 16.1 16.3 17.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.7 13.9 14.7 0.3 57.4 56.6 12.6 13.3 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 16.0 16.0 18.8 0.4 63.3 58.5 14.9 15.7 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.5 9.5 12.3 0.4 62.9 58.5 8.3 9.1 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.4 18.0 0.0 56.3 51.7 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 15.6 16.0 18.8 0.7 71.0 62.2 14.7 15.3 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 15.2 15.6 18.9 0.6 66.2 61.2 14.4 14.9 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 15.8 15.5 16.6 0.3 57.7 56.5 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 15.5 15.7 17.3 0.1 57.5 53.3 14.5 15.2 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 14.1 14.3 14.6 0.4 59.5 57.2 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.6 18.0 0.2 58.1 53.4 14.5 15.3 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.6 17.2 0.2 55.8 54.1 13.1 13.9 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.2 13.3 14.0 0.3 58.6 57.0 12.0 12.7 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.5 18.7 0.1 57.7 53.5 15.1 15.9 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------