***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.07.2016.-17.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 14.2 15.0 18.2 -0.2 48.9 48.7 14.3 15.1 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 13.9 15.3 18.2 0.2 56.5 53.3 13.7 14.8 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 17.5 17.3 18.6 -0.1 51.9 50.2 16.1 17.2 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.0 12.6 16.4 0.0 52.8 52.0 11.6 12.4 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.2 16.3 0.0 50.4 50.7 13.0 14.2 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 13.1 13.2 14.5 0.1 56.7 54.0 12.2 12.9 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 14.5 15.3 18.2 -0.1 47.8 49.3 14.8 15.4 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 8.5 8.3 14.3 0.1 50.9 53.5 7.6 8.3 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 15.2 14.9 16.5 0.1 50.5 52.5 14.5 14.9 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.0 15.1 0.1 52.7 53.8 14.4 14.9 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.1 14.8 16.0 0.1 51.1 53.0 14.4 14.8 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 13.3 13.2 15.1 0.1 52.1 53.6 12.4 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.3 14.4 0.1 50.3 53.4 13.5 14.3 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.3 16.5 0.3 61.2 56.5 14.7 16.2 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 16.7 16.8 17.9 0.2 58.1 54.7 16.0 16.5 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.3 15.4 0.2 52.7 53.4 14.2 15.2 15.9 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 15.1 16.6 18.2 0.4 60.6 56.3 15.2 16.3 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 13.7 13.7 14.5 0.1 52.4 54.0 12.9 13.5 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 14.5 15.8 18.4 0.3 60.1 55.3 14.1 15.4 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.9 9.7 12.0 0.1 49.7 53.1 8.7 9.7 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.0 17.7 -0.2 48.3 49.1 14.0 15.0 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 14.2 15.7 18.3 0.5 65.7 58.7 14.1 15.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 15.2 15.5 18.4 0.4 61.2 57.2 13.8 14.8 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.6 16.3 0.1 55.3 54.2 14.5 15.5 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 14.3 15.3 16.9 -0.1 50.0 50.9 13.8 15.3 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.2 14.1 14.4 0.3 56.7 56.2 13.5 13.9 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 13.7 14.8 17.6 0.0 50.3 51.1 14.0 14.8 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.5 14.7 16.9 0.1 55.3 52.8 13.5 14.2 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.0 11.8 13.7 0.1 50.0 53.0 11.4 11.8 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 14.7 15.8 18.3 -0.1 51.2 50.2 14.7 15.6 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------