***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.07.2016.-10.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.2 19.0 0.4 56.4 57.4 15.1 15.9 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 15.6 16.1 18.9 0.7 64.0 61.6 14.4 15.4 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.7 17.8 19.2 0.4 57.0 57.4 16.5 17.5 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 13.1 13.3 16.9 0.7 64.1 61.8 11.3 13.0 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.4 17.2 0.5 60.0 60.1 13.6 14.2 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 13.3 13.6 14.9 0.7 64.2 63.2 12.2 13.1 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 15.8 16.0 18.9 0.4 58.3 58.1 15.1 15.6 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 8.3 8.8 14.9 0.8 62.2 64.0 7.5 8.1 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.9 17.4 0.6 58.5 61.4 14.4 15.6 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 15.3 15.8 15.8 0.8 60.9 63.3 14.4 15.2 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 15.4 15.6 17.1 0.8 62.8 64.2 14.6 15.3 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 13.0 13.3 16.0 0.8 63.5 64.6 12.1 12.8 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 14.9 15.2 15.7 0.9 64.0 65.3 13.5 14.8 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 16.6 16.6 17.2 0.8 65.5 64.5 15.2 16.1 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 17.3 17.2 18.9 0.9 69.6 66.3 15.4 16.6 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 15.9 16.2 16.4 0.8 63.7 63.7 14.5 15.7 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 16.6 16.8 18.9 1.0 72.1 64.7 15.3 15.7 16.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 13.4 14.0 15.1 0.7 62.2 62.4 12.5 13.1 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 16.0 16.1 19.0 0.8 66.6 63.4 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 10.2 10.2 13.0 0.8 61.9 63.7 8.5 10.0 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 15.4 16.0 18.6 0.4 55.4 58.1 14.3 15.1 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 15.7 15.9 19.2 1.2 76.3 67.9 14.3 15.1 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 15.4 15.4 19.1 1.0 68.8 66.4 14.1 14.6 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 16.0 16.3 17.1 0.6 61.5 61.1 14.9 15.9 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.6 18.0 0.5 59.8 58.9 14.5 15.2 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 14.3 14.7 15.0 0.7 59.8 61.4 13.3 14.0 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.6 18.4 0.4 58.7 58.1 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 14.5 14.8 17.5 0.7 65.6 63.1 13.7 14.3 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 12.7 13.0 14.4 0.7 62.2 63.3 11.5 12.5 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.0 19.0 0.5 58.8 58.4 15.2 15.7 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------