***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.06.2016.-03.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 16.4 16.8 18.6 1.3 79.3 75.1 15.1 15.6 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 16.7 17.0 18.6 1.4 77.2 76.6 14.2 15.3 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 18.3 18.4 18.8 1.2 72.9 72.2 16.6 17.2 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 14.3 14.7 16.6 1.6 82.3 81.7 11.3 12.3 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 15.1 15.5 17.3 1.5 80.5 79.2 13.3 14.1 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 14.0 14.3 14.7 1.7 86.7 85.3 12.3 12.9 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 16.7 16.9 18.5 1.2 76.5 73.3 14.5 15.6 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 9.4 10.1 14.6 1.5 82.7 80.4 7.2 7.9 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 16.3 16.6 17.6 1.6 82.9 82.4 14.2 15.1 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 10 90 100 16.2 16.6 15.8 1.6 83.3 81.8 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 16.1 16.3 17.4 1.7 86.4 84.7 14.0 15.0 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 14.0 14.4 15.8 1.6 82.4 80.4 12.1 12.5 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 15.2 16.2 16.3 2.0 87.6 87.1 13.2 14.3 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 17.0 17.4 17.1 1.4 77.9 76.1 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 17.4 17.7 19.1 2.0 89.5 88.9 15.6 16.4 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 16.2 17.0 16.7 1.7 85.5 84.4 14.2 15.3 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 17.1 18.0 18.5 1.6 84.2 80.6 14.8 16.1 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 15.0 15.4 15.0 1.3 78.5 76.8 12.5 13.3 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 16.5 16.7 18.7 1.4 77.7 77.2 14.4 15.5 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 14 86 100 10.7 10.9 13.0 1.4 78.1 77.6 8.6 9.2 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 16.1 16.2 18.6 1.3 77.1 76.8 14.0 15.2 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 16.3 17.4 18.8 1.6 84.0 80.9 13.6 14.7 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 16.0 16.7 18.8 1.6 81.4 80.3 13.6 14.9 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 16.4 16.7 17.1 1.3 77.3 75.4 14.1 15.4 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 15.9 16.4 18.0 1.5 80.9 77.3 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 8 92 100 15.1 15.3 14.9 1.6 83.4 82.3 13.1 14.2 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 16.4 16.9 18.3 1.5 80.4 77.4 13.4 15.0 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 15.1 15.8 17.5 1.7 86.1 85.1 13.2 13.9 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 13.5 14.0 14.1 1.3 76.8 75.9 11.4 12.0 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 16.8 17.0 18.7 1.2 74.2 73.0 14.3 16.1 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------