***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.06.2017.-23.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 29.9 42.2 36.9 82.5 49.7 43.5 36.6 42.3 66.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 33.4 43.9 36.2 89.0 49.9 45.7 37.5 43.9 50.0 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 30.8 40.2 36.8 84.0 50.0 43.5 28.7 40.2 59.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 32.7 60.1 34.1 86.1 54.3 46.0 34.5 52.8 70.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 33.1 49.8 34.2 88.3 55.9 45.5 37.8 42.6 52.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 28.9 38.9 34.8 78.2 46.8 40.8 31.3 39.8 56.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 29.2 39.7 34.8 83.7 46.0 43.0 31.8 43.4 54.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 55.0 77.3 41.2 88.3 50.7 42.9 64.6 76.7 93.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 29.4 43.1 35.8 84.5 52.9 43.0 29.3 42.6 58.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 38.8 59.7 43.2 86.5 50.7 42.1 48.4 59.5 75.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 27.3 44.4 32.9 83.9 51.7 42.8 25.2 39.0 54.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 30.2 47.8 31.8 84.4 51.3 42.7 35.7 47.0 67.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 21.1 35.8 31.7 84.8 57.2 43.7 22.3 30.5 43.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 50.2 68.1 52.4 94.6 54.2 47.0 50.3 66.3 78.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 40.7 40.0 28.7 86.4 55.0 46.9 19.1 34.0 50.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 21.7 41.0 31.2 84.2 56.8 43.3 26.1 37.5 44.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 32.3 44.1 37.1 90.7 52.4 45.6 29.7 42.4 53.9 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 44.9 61.1 51.3 92.0 54.2 42.9 45.3 59.5 78.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 34.0 45.9 37.9 91.3 51.2 46.7 35.0 45.4 66.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 46.1 64.9 52.6 97.9 57.7 45.9 52.7 59.1 66.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 30.9 47.8 35.4 84.0 52.6 43.4 23.4 46.6 58.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 53.9 50.9 40.7 96.1 54.9 48.9 35.8 48.2 64.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 36.2 51.0 40.9 91.9 53.4 46.7 37.7 50.3 57.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 40.0 64.4 46.2 91.3 53.2 44.4 40.5 58.5 86.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 29.7 56.7 39.9 86.9 54.3 46.4 28.4 45.1 67.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 22.6 33.3 27.5 87.7 56.4 45.0 19.9 28.2 41.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 35.5 48.4 40.0 83.7 48.5 44.4 41.1 49.1 68.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 39.4 41.7 31.8 87.1 56.7 46.6 22.7 31.4 45.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 58.9 80.7 54.9 95.5 55.1 44.7 62.5 78.3 91.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 33.4 41.1 35.8 84.3 48.0 43.8 38.0 44.6 69.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------