***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.07.2017.-23.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 6.8 13.0 6.0 68.1 62.8 46.1 1.0 2.7 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.0 9.2 5.9 71.0 61.8 46.4 0.7 4.3 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.9 8.7 6.4 73.9 60.7 46.9 1.1 5.6 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.3 18.0 7.4 101.8 71.4 51.7 1.7 6.7 17.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.3 16.6 7.2 101.6 70.4 51.8 0.4 2.9 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.0 6.1 7.6 86.2 63.6 49.0 0.5 3.3 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.4 5.9 5.9 69.8 60.3 46.7 1.1 3.6 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 10.6 12.8 8.8 100.2 65.5 49.6 3.4 8.7 13.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 5.4 4.8 7.1 87.1 65.7 48.8 0.1 1.3 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.7 8.9 93.2 65.0 49.2 1.3 4.4 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.7 13.3 6.8 98.7 70.2 51.8 0.0 2.3 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.9 9.6 6.4 91.1 66.2 50.6 0.0 2.4 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 2.2 3.5 5.9 83.0 65.3 52.0 0.0 0.8 3.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 10.8 21.8 10.3 85.9 65.0 48.8 1.1 6.3 23.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 4.4 12.2 6.8 115.7 74.8 53.4 0.5 1.7 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 4.9 5.9 6.0 86.1 66.8 51.0 0.5 2.9 5.9 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 1.9 8.2 5.8 69.1 61.2 45.1 2.0 4.0 10.1 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 2.6 13.1 10.3 90.2 63.1 48.8 1.0 5.4 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 2.6 12.2 6.4 75.1 62.9 47.7 1.1 5.5 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 6.7 9.1 11.9 108.8 66.4 51.1 1.0 4.7 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.2 6.4 76.9 63.5 48.3 0.0 2.3 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.0 6.9 6.6 70.8 60.0 47.4 1.2 4.1 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.3 8.4 7.3 78.1 63.5 48.4 0.7 6.1 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.2 8.6 82.6 63.2 49.3 0.9 5.6 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 8.2 8.6 6.6 75.6 63.3 48.6 0.7 5.6 8.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 0.0 4.8 5.2 94.1 71.0 48.5 0.0 0.0 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.1 6.5 69.1 62.9 46.6 2.7 6.6 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.5 15.4 7.3 107.7 73.7 53.1 0.1 2.8 10.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 3.5 12.9 11.8 100.0 65.1 49.4 3.3 7.6 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.8 7.3 5.9 69.9 60.9 47.6 2.3 5.2 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------