***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.07.2017.-16.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.2 16.4 8.2 81.3 67.6 47.7 3.9 5.0 15.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.6 9.9 7.3 81.2 64.1 50.2 3.0 5.7 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.6 14.0 9.0 88.2 66.2 47.4 3.1 7.2 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 2.7 12.4 6.5 63.4 60.8 44.4 2.1 6.8 17.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 4.2 13.2 7.0 73.6 64.5 44.6 4.4 8.8 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 3.3 10.1 7.4 66.0 58.9 40.8 3.0 8.2 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.2 7.4 7.4 85.4 65.9 49.8 1.9 4.3 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 14.2 30.8 10.5 98.5 67.2 47.0 19.9 27.0 30.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 3.5 12.1 8.4 80.6 63.6 43.1 3.8 7.5 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 5.8 22.0 11.0 93.5 65.9 46.8 7.0 15.5 22.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 4.0 17.9 6.8 74.7 65.6 45.1 2.4 10.8 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 8.5 24.7 7.5 85.1 65.9 46.6 9.4 17.0 24.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 12.3 15.6 6.9 77.5 64.7 48.5 5.4 9.5 16.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 4.1 20.6 12.3 89.5 63.1 45.2 4.4 7.8 22.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 1.6 5.7 4.7 55.3 60.4 43.7 1.0 3.6 6.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 6.0 17.0 6.1 68.3 64.6 46.6 5.1 12.8 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.1 13.3 7.6 84.0 65.1 48.5 3.0 6.2 14.3 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 9.2 26.0 14.4 106.8 66.1 46.4 12.9 18.9 26.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.6 7.8 84.3 65.5 51.2 5.1 8.7 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 8.0 20.2 14.6 114.4 68.2 48.7 9.4 14.1 17.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 4.4 11.9 8.5 83.4 64.3 45.1 5.4 9.1 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.2 13.5 8.5 85.6 66.7 49.8 2.8 9.1 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.1 16.5 9.3 92.8 67.6 50.0 4.7 8.8 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 7.3 15.2 12.6 101.8 65.6 46.8 6.8 12.2 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.8 15.7 8.3 77.3 65.1 46.6 4.0 8.3 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.6 13.0 7.2 96.2 70.9 45.8 3.4 5.2 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.2 14.8 8.6 81.1 66.5 48.1 2.8 5.5 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.2 8.4 5.8 61.0 61.6 45.0 0.6 5.3 8.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 15.6 28.9 15.1 109.0 66.4 47.2 16.3 19.8 28.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 9.5 12.9 7.8 82.5 65.6 50.8 3.3 6.4 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------