***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.07.2017.-09.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 2.3 13.9 11.2 91.8 65.5 47.7 2.0 5.2 14.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 4.5 13.7 11.5 97.9 64.7 48.5 4.8 8.8 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.5 13.1 11.1 90.0 62.2 46.5 3.3 9.8 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 1.9 11.3 9.4 96.1 65.6 43.6 1.9 4.5 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 3.6 15.1 10.3 102.5 68.8 44.4 2.0 9.4 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 2.0 8.6 9.7 83.3 59.5 38.6 2.0 4.8 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 15.9 17.8 10.5 86.7 62.5 47.3 7.0 12.2 19.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 7.0 20.0 10.3 90.9 62.4 42.5 9.4 12.5 22.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 2.6 14.7 10.0 92.9 64.8 40.8 2.2 7.3 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 4.8 15.9 11.3 91.2 62.6 42.6 5.3 10.3 19.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 2.9 7.4 9.9 86.5 61.7 39.5 3.6 5.9 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.9 10.1 8.9 94.8 63.8 42.0 3.5 6.3 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 1.8 7.5 10.4 110.9 69.9 46.6 1.6 4.2 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 5.2 17.9 14.0 94.2 61.7 43.8 4.7 13.3 22.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 0.9 5.0 8.9 98.4 67.1 44.7 0.7 2.3 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.7 8.8 10.2 106.7 69.0 43.3 2.4 5.8 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 2.3 11.8 12.5 102.9 67.3 49.1 2.1 4.7 11.6 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 6.1 11.4 12.0 86.4 59.6 41.6 5.7 10.1 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 5.3 16.0 11.7 101.4 65.2 48.3 5.4 8.9 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 5.0 16.2 12.5 93.6 63.3 43.7 8.2 11.3 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 4.0 12.4 9.9 86.4 63.9 42.6 4.6 8.8 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.9 16.4 12.5 104.8 67.0 49.9 4.0 9.2 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 5.8 18.1 12.6 104.6 64.2 48.1 4.4 10.6 20.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 5.4 14.4 12.2 90.8 60.7 43.7 7.0 11.6 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.8 16.2 12.7 98.3 65.0 47.3 3.2 6.4 17.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 2.1 6.9 7.1 79.2 61.5 37.8 2.6 4.5 7.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.8 12.3 12.5 92.0 63.4 46.9 3.4 7.1 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 1.3 11.3 9.1 104.8 69.6 43.7 1.2 3.5 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 8.5 19.2 13.2 86.8 58.6 42.4 10.0 14.9 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 5.1 11.2 10.9 89.8 62.2 47.2 6.2 8.8 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------