***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.06.2017.-02.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 16.4 14.2 11.5 84.4 55.3 48.6 9.1 14.1 18.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 16.5 16.5 11.6 98.7 61.5 53.6 8.3 13.8 18.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 15.0 16.6 10.3 81.6 58.0 48.1 7.9 13.2 19.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 11.7 12.5 10.8 88.4 60.9 50.3 5.9 9.9 15.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.9 12.7 9.7 81.4 60.6 49.6 3.8 6.4 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.7 5.9 10.1 78.9 56.2 45.7 4.1 5.7 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 10.5 10.0 11.0 89.3 59.0 51.7 5.8 8.8 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 23.8 19.4 11.6 73.8 52.8 46.4 10.1 18.3 36.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.2 9.7 10.4 79.5 56.0 49.5 4.1 8.1 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.9 11.7 12.0 75.3 54.0 47.2 5.0 10.1 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.6 8.5 9.4 84.5 60.7 50.9 2.9 7.1 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 5.8 13.3 9.0 74.2 55.1 47.2 4.4 12.3 16.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 2.6 8.7 8.5 71.0 59.5 44.1 2.6 6.9 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 19.9 23.8 15.7 108.0 66.1 55.3 8.4 15.5 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 4.3 8.0 8.2 85.8 64.7 51.7 0.1 2.5 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.1 7.6 8.9 78.2 60.1 47.7 1.2 4.2 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 14.5 16.3 11.3 99.2 62.5 54.6 4.8 10.8 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 18.2 18.1 14.6 86.8 56.5 50.0 11.0 15.7 23.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 13.2 14.5 12.0 99.1 62.7 53.6 7.2 10.3 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 19.6 19.7 13.6 80.7 55.5 47.9 8.9 17.5 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 12.0 11.0 10.6 87.7 58.2 49.5 7.0 9.6 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 14.3 16.6 13.1 117.1 70.7 57.6 8.2 13.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 14.0 13.4 11.7 89.6 60.5 51.7 7.2 9.7 18.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 24.3 22.3 12.7 88.9 60.1 50.9 9.6 19.6 33.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 13.2 13.2 12.2 91.5 58.9 50.0 7.3 10.8 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 8.5 14.6 8.0 86.9 64.1 52.7 3.1 6.2 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 17.3 17.2 12.4 87.2 56.7 48.8 7.3 14.1 21.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.8 6.1 9.6 83.5 61.5 48.8 2.0 4.6 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 26.7 24.8 14.8 89.8 57.3 50.6 12.6 22.0 31.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 19.6 20.0 11.1 90.3 59.4 50.8 8.9 16.7 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------