***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.06.2017.-23.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 29.5 29.7 30.7 2.4 86.7 80.6 28.0 28.5 29.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 29.4 30.1 30.6 2.3 84.7 78.8 27.7 28.5 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 29.3 29.9 30.8 2.2 85.9 79.1 27.8 28.1 29.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 22.4 23.4 29.0 2.8 91.3 84.9 20.7 21.5 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 29.7 30.3 29.0 2.1 85.5 78.9 28.0 28.9 29.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 28.2 28.6 26.2 1.8 83.3 78.2 26.8 27.5 28.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 29.4 30.0 30.5 2.2 85.5 79.3 27.6 28.4 28.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 17.4 18.0 26.7 1.8 82.5 75.3 16.0 16.7 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 29.4 30.1 29.6 2.3 88.0 80.5 27.7 28.5 29.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 28.8 29.4 27.6 1.9 83.9 76.5 27.4 28.2 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 29.4 30.2 29.1 2.3 88.0 80.5 27.5 28.6 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 28.1 29.2 28.2 2.1 85.8 79.1 27.2 27.6 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 29.6 29.9 27.8 1.8 81.5 76.1 28.1 29.0 29.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 28.8 29.0 27.9 1.3 75.5 70.0 27.6 28.1 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 30.3 32.2 31.0 3.2 95.3 90.1 28.8 29.6 29.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 30.4 31.3 28.6 2.3 87.1 80.5 28.6 29.4 30.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 28.7 29.8 30.2 2.2 85.6 78.5 27.1 27.7 28.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 28.0 28.2 26.3 1.4 77.2 70.3 26.6 27.4 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 28.9 29.6 30.7 2.3 85.6 79.4 27.4 28.0 28.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 23.9 23.6 23.6 1.0 72.0 65.8 22.3 23.1 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 29.4 30.0 30.1 2.0 84.2 77.6 27.6 28.6 29.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 29.3 29.8 29.7 1.8 81.4 74.7 27.6 28.3 29.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 29.0 29.7 30.7 2.5 87.4 81.1 27.5 28.1 29.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 28.5 28.9 28.3 1.6 79.5 73.1 27.1 27.8 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 29.4 29.8 29.1 2.2 85.6 79.3 27.9 28.8 29.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 29.2 29.9 27.8 2.1 87.7 80.3 27.7 28.5 28.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 28.9 29.8 29.8 2.2 86.4 80.2 27.3 28.2 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 13 87 100 30.2 31.8 29.7 2.8 92.3 86.0 28.8 29.7 29.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 23.6 23.6 25.0 1.0 72.0 66.7 21.7 22.9 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 29.0 29.8 30.7 2.3 85.3 79.5 27.5 28.1 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------