***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.07.2017.-23.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 30.2 30.6 30.9 1.6 72.8 64.6 28.0 28.6 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 30.5 31.2 30.8 1.6 71.3 64.6 27.1 28.9 30.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 30.5 30.9 31.1 1.5 72.0 64.2 28.1 28.8 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 23.4 23.5 29.5 1.8 75.1 66.6 21.5 22.4 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 31.3 31.1 29.3 1.3 70.2 62.8 28.6 29.5 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 26.9 28.9 26.4 0.9 65.5 58.5 27.5 28.0 28.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 30.2 31.0 30.7 1.6 71.1 64.2 27.3 28.6 31.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 18.7 18.5 27.2 1.1 66.2 60.5 16.3 17.3 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 30.4 30.8 29.5 1.4 71.4 63.2 28.0 28.4 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 30.3 30.3 27.9 1.2 68.6 61.5 27.7 28.5 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 30.8 30.8 29.0 1.5 70.1 63.4 28.1 28.7 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 29.3 29.1 28.6 1.2 66.9 61.3 27.2 27.9 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 28.1 30.1 27.5 0.8 62.1 57.1 28.4 29.4 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 27.2 29.9 28.1 0.8 61.5 58.1 27.6 28.7 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 31.1 31.3 30.5 2.0 76.9 69.2 29.8 30.4 31.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 31.5 31.3 28.7 1.3 68.0 62.0 29.0 29.9 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 28.8 30.8 30.5 1.5 69.3 63.8 26.6 28.3 30.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 29.4 28.8 26.9 0.8 61.8 58.4 27.2 28.1 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 30.2 30.7 30.9 1.6 71.5 64.8 27.3 28.5 30.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 22.0 23.9 24.2 0.5 57.8 55.1 22.8 23.5 24.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 30.4 30.5 30.2 1.2 68.2 62.0 28.2 28.9 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 29.3 30.5 30.1 1.3 65.5 62.4 27.3 28.8 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 30.2 30.7 30.8 1.6 70.9 64.8 28.0 28.4 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 29.9 29.4 28.5 1.0 63.3 60.0 27.5 27.9 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 30.8 31.0 29.2 1.4 70.3 63.2 28.2 29.1 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 30.4 29.9 28.3 1.3 65.7 61.7 28.5 29.0 30.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 30.1 30.5 29.9 1.5 71.7 64.2 27.7 28.6 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 30.9 31.1 29.7 1.8 73.9 66.2 29.8 30.1 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 22.0 23.5 25.5 0.5 58.2 55.8 22.4 23.1 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 30.3 30.8 30.9 1.6 72.5 64.7 27.4 28.7 30.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------