***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.07.2017.-16.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 29.5 30.1 30.4 2.0 75.0 67.1 26.6 27.4 28.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 29.5 29.8 30.3 1.9 73.7 66.1 27.0 27.8 28.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 30.1 29.7 30.5 1.9 74.5 66.1 26.5 27.5 28.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 22.6 23.3 29.1 2.4 78.5 70.8 19.9 20.6 21.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 30.2 30.9 28.8 1.8 76.2 66.3 27.1 27.6 28.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 28.5 29.3 26.2 1.6 75.3 65.6 25.6 26.7 28.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 29.1 29.6 30.3 1.9 74.9 66.7 26.9 27.7 28.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 17.7 18.2 26.9 1.7 73.9 63.9 14.4 16.1 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 29.7 30.3 29.0 1.9 76.2 66.1 26.5 27.6 28.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 29.1 29.5 27.5 1.8 74.4 64.4 26.3 27.1 28.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 29.3 30.1 28.7 2.1 77.3 67.4 26.7 27.4 28.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 28.4 29.1 28.3 1.9 75.4 65.3 25.9 26.7 27.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 29.6 30.2 27.1 1.4 72.4 62.1 26.9 27.8 28.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 29.2 28.6 27.5 1.1 69.2 60.9 26.8 27.1 27.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 30.6 31.5 30.4 2.8 85.2 75.9 28.1 28.4 29.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 30.3 30.9 28.3 2.0 76.0 66.9 27.6 28.5 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 28.8 29.0 30.0 1.8 73.8 65.5 26.0 27.6 28.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 28.3 27.5 26.4 1.3 70.9 60.8 25.2 26.3 27.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 29.1 29.2 30.3 1.9 73.7 65.9 26.3 27.1 28.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 23.7 23.3 23.8 1.0 68.5 58.5 20.6 22.1 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 30.1 29.3 29.7 1.7 73.6 64.8 26.4 27.5 28.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 29.1 28.7 29.5 1.5 69.9 63.3 26.8 27.8 28.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 29.5 29.9 30.2 1.9 73.6 65.9 26.6 27.1 28.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 29.1 28.3 28.0 1.4 71.0 62.3 26.1 26.9 28.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 29.8 30.4 28.7 1.8 76.0 66.6 27.1 27.7 29.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 29.3 29.9 28.1 2.0 76.7 66.4 26.5 27.5 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 29.4 29.7 29.4 1.9 76.0 67.4 26.3 27.4 28.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 30.4 31.5 29.5 2.5 80.9 72.2 27.9 28.5 30.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 23.5 23.3 25.1 1.0 68.7 58.6 20.3 22.0 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 29.1 29.6 30.3 1.9 74.1 66.5 26.5 27.5 28.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------