***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.07.2017.-09.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 29.6 29.6 29.6 1.3 71.3 64.1 27.8 28.4 29.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 29.5 29.4 29.6 1.4 70.6 65.5 27.0 28.7 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 29.6 29.4 29.6 1.2 68.8 63.0 27.0 28.5 29.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 23.0 23.5 27.7 1.5 75.8 66.7 20.5 21.3 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 30.1 30.0 27.8 0.8 66.6 60.4 28.2 28.9 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 27.9 28.4 25.0 0.5 61.9 58.2 25.8 27.4 28.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 29.5 29.1 29.5 1.3 69.9 65.4 27.0 28.3 29.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 16.8 16.9 25.5 0.6 61.5 58.7 15.2 16.3 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 29.4 29.5 28.5 1.1 69.7 63.1 27.6 28.1 29.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 29.1 28.9 26.5 0.8 63.6 59.7 27.4 28.1 28.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 29.4 29.5 28.0 1.0 67.4 62.4 27.8 28.4 29.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 28.6 28.1 27.0 1.0 66.4 62.4 26.6 27.4 28.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 29.4 29.3 26.8 0.6 61.0 58.7 27.4 29.0 29.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 28.4 28.2 27.0 0.3 54.1 53.9 27.1 28.1 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 31.0 31.6 30.0 2.0 80.4 72.3 28.2 29.4 30.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 30.7 30.4 27.5 1.0 67.9 62.6 28.4 29.4 30.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 29.2 28.8 29.2 1.4 70.5 65.6 26.6 28.0 28.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 27.5 27.4 25.1 0.2 55.9 54.3 26.4 27.0 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 28.6 28.9 29.7 1.4 71.4 65.5 27.0 27.9 28.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 21.4 22.3 22.7 -0.1 51.8 51.3 21.5 22.1 23.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 29.9 29.2 29.0 0.8 65.0 60.4 27.7 28.2 29.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 28.8 29.2 28.7 1.1 65.5 62.1 27.4 28.5 29.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 29.1 29.4 29.7 1.6 73.8 66.0 27.3 28.1 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 28.1 27.9 27.3 0.5 59.4 56.6 27.0 27.6 28.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 29.9 29.4 28.0 0.9 67.2 61.3 27.7 28.4 29.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 29.4 29.5 26.5 0.9 66.5 61.9 26.7 28.3 29.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 29.2 29.3 28.7 1.1 69.4 62.8 27.1 28.2 29.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 31.0 31.7 28.5 1.6 76.0 68.1 28.6 29.2 30.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 22.7 22.3 23.9 -0.1 51.9 50.9 21.4 22.0 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 29.2 29.3 29.7 1.4 70.9 65.0 27.1 28.3 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------