***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.06.2017.-02.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 30.0 32.2 31.9 4.6 98.0 90.6 27.0 28.5 29.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 29.3 31.5 31.6 4.1 93.6 86.2 26.7 27.1 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 29.7 31.9 31.8 4.4 95.2 88.1 26.8 27.1 29.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 22.9 25.7 29.8 5.3 99.7 93.6 19.3 20.7 22.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 12 88 100 30.7 33.4 30.2 4.5 97.3 89.5 27.0 28.0 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 13 87 100 29.2 31.2 27.3 4.2 97.2 89.7 25.8 26.6 28.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 29.2 31.7 31.4 4.1 94.6 87.4 26.7 27.3 28.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 18.1 20.3 27.1 3.7 93.8 84.3 14.7 16.5 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 30.4 32.0 31.2 4.8 97.3 90.5 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 29.8 31.4 28.5 4.0 94.6 86.1 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 30.7 32.8 30.6 4.7 97.3 90.3 26.3 27.6 28.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 17 83 100 29.4 31.4 29.0 4.4 96.5 88.8 25.4 27.0 27.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 30.6 32.9 29.7 4.4 98.0 89.8 26.8 27.8 29.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 29.2 30.4 29.2 3.2 87.8 79.9 26.5 27.5 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 31.1 33.3 32.9 5.9 100.0 96.5 27.6 28.0 29.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 31.7 34.0 30.0 4.7 98.9 91.0 27.3 28.5 29.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 28.8 30.8 31.0 3.9 93.3 85.3 26.3 26.7 27.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 29.1 30.2 26.7 3.1 89.4 80.0 25.4 26.9 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 29.1 31.5 31.7 4.3 94.2 86.8 26.5 26.9 28.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 24.4 25.8 23.9 2.4 84.3 75.0 21.1 22.7 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 30.0 32.0 31.6 4.3 95.9 87.9 26.5 27.3 29.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 29.0 30.7 30.3 3.3 89.2 80.8 26.7 27.4 28.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 11 89 100 29.4 31.8 32.0 4.8 95.9 89.4 26.6 27.2 28.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 29.2 30.7 29.5 3.6 91.3 82.8 25.9 27.0 28.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 30.3 32.2 30.6 4.5 98.4 89.7 26.4 27.5 29.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 30.1 32.1 28.3 4.4 96.5 89.3 26.7 27.3 29.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 29.1 31.9 31.0 4.4 98.0 89.8 26.3 27.1 28.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 30.8 33.3 31.0 5.4 99.8 94.3 27.9 28.7 29.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 24.2 25.3 25.6 2.8 86.5 77.3 20.4 22.6 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 29.4 31.7 31.8 4.3 95.0 87.7 26.7 27.3 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------