***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.06.2017.-23.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 16.1 17.1 19.1 1.7 93.8 83.6 15.4 15.6 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 16.3 17.0 18.7 1.4 87.1 77.9 14.8 15.4 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 18.5 18.9 19.2 1.5 88.7 81.1 16.6 17.3 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 13.5 14.5 16.9 1.6 93.0 84.9 11.9 12.8 13.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 14.5 15.7 16.7 1.3 89.6 81.2 13.6 14.0 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 13.3 13.6 14.3 1.0 83.7 78.0 12.5 12.9 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 16.5 17.0 19.0 1.5 88.8 80.2 15.0 15.8 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 8.8 9.4 14.0 0.9 82.2 74.8 7.8 8.3 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 15.9 16.5 16.8 1.2 90.0 80.8 14.4 15.2 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 15.6 16.2 14.9 0.9 82.9 75.0 14.5 15.0 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 15.5 16.2 16.2 1.2 89.3 80.5 14.3 15.0 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 13.5 13.9 15.1 1.2 88.1 80.4 12.4 13.0 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 14.8 15.0 14.5 0.8 78.4 73.6 13.9 14.1 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 16.4 16.6 16.2 0.8 75.3 70.2 15.3 16.0 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 17.0 18.4 18.6 1.9 95.8 89.8 15.7 16.4 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 16.0 16.8 15.6 1.2 87.2 80.5 14.7 15.2 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 16.7 17.5 18.4 1.2 85.8 76.1 15.6 16.3 16.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 14.2 14.4 13.9 0.7 77.3 71.1 13.0 13.6 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 16.2 16.6 18.8 1.4 87.7 79.0 15.0 15.4 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 10.0 10.0 11.7 0.6 72.5 68.2 8.8 9.5 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 15.8 16.4 18.1 1.3 88.2 79.4 14.6 15.0 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 15.8 16.1 18.3 1.1 83.0 74.0 14.6 15.2 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 15.6 15.8 18.7 1.5 89.1 81.4 14.6 14.8 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 16.2 16.4 16.2 0.9 80.5 73.8 14.6 15.7 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 15.6 16.7 17.7 1.5 90.9 81.4 14.7 15.1 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 12 88 100 14.5 15.1 14.4 1.2 87.2 82.1 13.5 13.9 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 16.1 16.7 18.4 1.6 93.5 83.7 14.6 15.2 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 14.6 15.8 17.4 1.7 93.8 86.7 13.8 14.2 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 13.0 13.1 13.1 0.5 69.3 66.1 11.6 12.4 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 16.6 17.0 19.1 1.5 88.1 80.2 15.2 15.8 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------