***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.07.2017.-23.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 16.7 17.0 18.9 0.8 68.6 60.6 14.9 15.6 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.8 18.7 0.7 65.6 60.3 14.5 16.1 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 18.7 18.9 19.1 0.8 68.9 61.5 16.6 17.4 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 14.0 14.4 16.8 1.0 70.4 63.4 12.1 12.8 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 15.1 15.2 16.4 0.7 66.1 60.1 12.7 13.9 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 13.9 13.6 14.5 0.5 63.7 58.1 11.5 12.9 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 17.0 17.3 18.9 0.8 66.7 60.4 15.0 15.9 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.9 14.1 0.6 62.0 58.1 7.8 8.2 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.9 16.5 0.7 63.1 59.3 14.3 15.0 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.5 14.9 0.5 60.1 57.5 14.1 14.9 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 15.8 15.8 16.0 0.8 67.6 61.8 13.7 14.6 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 13.8 13.7 14.9 0.7 64.9 59.6 11.5 12.9 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 14.3 14.1 14.0 0.3 54.2 53.8 12.4 13.9 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.1 16.1 16.1 0.3 58.6 55.5 14.7 15.7 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 17.2 17.5 18.2 1.1 71.2 65.2 15.5 16.3 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 16.4 16.2 15.4 0.7 65.7 60.7 13.9 15.5 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 17.1 17.7 18.4 0.6 64.3 58.6 15.9 16.8 17.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.9 13.8 13.8 0.3 55.6 55.0 12.5 13.5 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 16.6 16.4 18.8 0.8 68.0 61.7 14.9 15.8 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.4 9.0 11.4 0.1 50.7 51.7 8.1 9.0 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.8 17.8 0.6 62.9 58.2 14.1 15.0 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.9 18.3 0.7 64.9 59.8 14.5 15.1 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 15.9 15.6 18.7 0.9 71.2 63.4 14.4 15.3 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.9 16.0 0.5 60.5 57.4 14.4 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.6 16.3 17.3 0.6 64.3 58.0 14.0 15.2 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 12.9 14.5 14.1 0.6 61.7 58.1 12.8 13.9 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.9 16.6 18.0 0.7 66.7 59.6 14.3 15.4 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 15.1 15.3 17.1 1.0 70.1 63.9 12.6 14.1 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 13.3 12.9 13.1 0.2 52.6 52.9 11.6 12.9 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 17.2 17.2 19.0 0.8 67.8 61.1 15.0 16.1 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------