***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.07.2017.-16.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 16.4 16.7 18.8 1.4 76.3 69.4 14.4 15.1 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 16.3 16.8 18.6 1.2 73.4 66.5 13.6 14.6 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 18.0 18.3 19.0 1.2 74.4 68.0 16.0 16.8 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 13.7 14.5 16.8 1.5 79.4 72.0 11.3 11.9 12.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 15.2 15.7 16.4 1.2 76.9 69.0 13.1 13.9 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 13.7 13.8 14.4 0.9 74.1 66.4 12.2 12.8 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 16.5 16.4 18.9 1.4 75.2 68.3 14.6 15.5 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 8.8 8.9 14.0 1.0 73.8 65.7 7.3 8.2 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 16.0 16.2 16.5 1.2 76.3 68.7 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 15.8 15.8 14.8 1.0 73.2 66.1 14.4 15.1 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 15.7 16.0 15.9 1.3 78.1 70.1 14.3 15.0 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 13.7 14.1 14.8 1.1 76.3 67.9 12.5 12.9 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 15.2 15.2 14.0 0.7 68.7 63.1 13.5 13.9 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.2 16.7 15.9 0.7 68.0 61.6 15.1 16.0 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 17.4 17.8 18.2 1.7 82.4 75.8 16.0 16.6 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 16.2 16.6 15.3 1.1 76.7 69.1 14.5 15.1 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 17.0 17.2 18.4 1.2 73.0 65.6 14.9 15.9 16.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 14.5 14.5 13.7 0.7 68.5 62.3 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 15.9 16.2 18.6 1.2 73.7 66.8 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.8 10.1 11.4 0.5 64.4 58.8 8.8 9.7 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 15.9 16.3 17.8 1.1 74.8 67.3 14.3 14.9 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 16.1 16.3 18.1 1.0 70.2 64.3 14.0 14.8 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 15.9 16.3 18.5 1.3 74.5 67.9 13.6 14.8 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 16.3 16.3 15.9 0.8 70.6 64.2 14.8 15.5 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 16.0 16.2 17.3 1.2 74.6 67.9 13.9 15.2 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 14.8 14.9 14.1 1.1 74.5 68.3 13.2 14.0 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 16.1 16.8 18.1 1.4 76.3 69.5 13.8 14.7 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 15.2 15.9 17.2 1.6 81.4 73.6 13.9 14.2 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.6 13.0 0.6 66.3 60.2 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 16.7 17.1 18.9 1.3 74.6 67.7 14.5 15.5 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------