***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.06.2017.-02.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 16.5 18.1 20.8 4.0 99.8 96.3 14.7 15.0 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 16.1 19.3 20.0 3.3 97.6 92.9 13.8 14.9 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 18.2 21.1 20.6 3.5 98.7 94.7 15.9 16.7 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 14.2 17.0 18.3 3.7 99.8 96.0 10.6 12.1 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 14.8 17.0 18.5 3.3 97.5 94.5 13.0 13.6 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 3 97 100 13.7 15.2 15.3 2.7 95.2 91.2 12.2 12.9 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 3 97 100 16.4 18.8 20.3 3.6 99.1 94.4 14.2 15.4 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 9.5 10.7 14.8 2.3 91.1 87.7 6.7 7.6 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 16.0 18.1 18.3 3.0 94.9 93.2 14.0 14.7 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 5 95 100 15.9 17.3 15.9 2.4 91.7 88.7 14.1 14.4 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 5 95 100 15.8 17.4 17.5 2.7 93.9 91.3 13.9 14.5 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 14.0 15.5 16.5 2.9 95.5 92.4 11.7 12.4 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 7 93 100 15.0 16.5 16.2 2.5 92.4 89.3 13.3 14.0 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 7 93 100 16.9 18.5 17.6 2.5 92.4 89.0 14.6 15.0 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 16.8 19.3 20.4 4.1 100.0 98.0 15.4 16.1 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 16.1 18.5 17.2 2.9 96.0 92.4 13.8 14.6 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 5 95 100 16.6 19.3 19.6 3.2 97.3 92.0 14.5 15.4 16.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 5 95 100 14.9 15.9 15.3 2.3 91.6 88.1 12.4 12.9 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 16.4 18.8 20.1 3.3 97.5 93.0 14.1 15.1 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 10.6 12.0 13.3 2.3 90.9 87.7 8.5 8.8 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 16.2 18.3 19.6 3.2 96.6 94.0 13.9 14.5 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 6 94 100 16.0 18.2 19.5 2.9 95.6 90.2 13.7 14.3 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 15.8 18.6 20.1 3.4 97.2 93.6 13.4 14.5 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 6 94 100 16.4 18.0 17.7 2.6 93.5 89.9 14.3 14.8 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 3 97 100 15.8 18.6 19.8 3.9 99.2 95.6 13.8 14.6 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 14.9 17.0 16.0 3.3 98.9 94.5 12.8 13.9 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 16.0 18.9 20.4 4.2 99.8 96.5 13.3 14.5 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 14.9 17.4 18.9 3.8 99.7 96.3 12.9 13.6 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 9 91 100 13.5 14.4 14.1 1.9 86.3 83.9 10.6 11.6 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 16.8 19.5 20.5 3.6 98.5 94.2 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------