***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2018.-22.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 72.1 93.9 81.8 165.7 87.1 73.9 33.7 42.5 66.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 65.3 75.0 64.9 146.9 78.2 67.8 39.3 42.8 50.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 71.8 93.3 79.4 166.2 86.4 74.0 31.3 40.8 59.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 72.0 117.8 85.8 190.0 90.1 81.4 34.6 53.0 68.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 60.2 125.8 92.3 212.2 94.5 85.4 39.7 43.6 52.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 56.7 74.1 88.2 167.0 85.6 77.9 32.0 39.0 53.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 63.5 73.3 64.8 144.8 79.1 67.6 32.8 43.4 53.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 107.4 154.6 98.4 188.1 92.3 84.1 64.3 74.8 89.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 12 88 100 63.7 86.9 89.8 187.2 91.5 81.0 29.7 44.7 54.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 15 85 100 90.2 120.1 101.1 180.3 91.3 81.1 50.2 60.3 74.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 9 91 100 61.0 112.5 89.0 209.9 94.8 86.2 25.2 36.5 54.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 11 89 100 71.5 126.9 85.4 205.1 93.5 85.7 35.7 45.1 66.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 50.5 73.2 93.0 216.7 93.5 85.2 20.6 29.7 43.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 88.6 105.0 92.8 152.4 83.4 72.1 48.8 65.0 79.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 56.7 72.4 68.4 178.8 85.3 76.0 19.3 34.3 49.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 47.0 91.9 85.9 208.0 93.3 84.4 25.0 39.9 45.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 58.7 62.9 58.6 133.6 75.2 62.9 30.2 44.5 52.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 82.3 109.1 105.8 166.4 87.8 78.3 46.9 57.2 78.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 75.3 96.0 67.3 148.6 79.7 68.4 35.3 42.1 71.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 72.9 94.6 109.3 175.2 90.9 83.0 52.7 64.0 66.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 73.2 113.5 87.8 184.8 92.1 79.9 26.6 44.8 58.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 52.0 68.9 58.7 130.0 73.2 61.9 35.0 46.3 58.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 67.5 86.4 71.6 149.4 83.3 69.0 37.6 50.3 60.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 93.7 122.5 92.5 163.6 85.7 75.2 42.7 62.4 85.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 77.6 104.0 95.1 184.2 91.9 79.0 28.8 45.1 70.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 42.5 97.8 75.3 215.4 94.8 86.6 20.3 27.0 40.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 79.9 102.5 86.9 163.1 86.7 73.5 40.6 49.1 62.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 59.0 77.3 78.5 185.4 87.8 79.5 22.7 33.1 44.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 103.5 131.3 108.2 166.4 88.7 79.4 59.5 78.6 95.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 70.6 85.9 70.0 154.9 82.4 70.5 39.2 42.7 68.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------