***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2018.-22.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 1.0 12.6 7.7 73.4 61.3 42.0 0.9 2.6 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 2.7 9.9 6.9 80.2 62.3 42.9 2.2 6.4 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.9 10.6 8.0 77.8 60.1 43.3 1.1 7.2 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 8.4 9.8 8.5 87.7 65.5 47.1 0.5 4.2 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 1.2 8.5 7.2 81.0 63.9 44.1 0.9 2.6 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.0 9.6 12.9 117.2 69.4 50.8 1.4 3.9 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 1.3 7.1 7.3 82.9 62.9 41.2 0.8 3.6 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 3.1 13.5 11.4 105.3 68.4 49.5 3.4 6.6 11.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 0.4 3.3 7.1 70.9 60.0 44.5 0.1 1.0 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 1.7 6.0 10.0 82.6 62.6 45.2 0.9 3.9 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.7 7.7 93.9 66.7 46.9 0.2 1.5 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.1 15.5 9.4 115.0 70.1 50.9 0.0 2.5 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 0.3 4.4 9.9 123.8 74.3 50.4 0.0 0.6 2.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 1.8 7.3 9.9 73.5 56.5 43.1 1.1 4.0 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 5.0 7.9 8.8 100.7 70.8 49.6 0.5 1.9 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 1.2 6.0 8.8 109.9 70.7 49.4 0.8 2.5 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 1.6 7.4 7.4 82.2 62.3 40.2 2.0 3.8 8.8 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 2.4 10.6 12.8 90.9 61.2 46.0 0.8 4.9 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.5 9.8 7.2 79.3 61.8 43.1 1.7 5.8 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 2.1 9.6 15.5 114.0 67.1 50.2 2.1 4.8 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 1.0 4.7 7.3 75.2 60.7 45.0 0.1 2.3 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 1.6 6.1 8.4 87.4 64.3 41.1 1.5 4.0 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.2 9.9 7.5 75.2 59.7 42.8 0.6 7.0 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 2.2 8.4 9.6 76.5 57.1 44.1 0.8 4.9 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.8 8.7 8.8 80.2 61.7 44.2 1.0 6.4 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 1.6 4.7 8.3 140.3 76.6 54.0 0.0 0.3 3.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 2.5 8.7 8.6 76.5 61.8 43.2 1.3 6.2 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.0 9.6 9.0 95.1 68.6 48.5 0.4 2.8 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 5.3 18.7 14.2 99.1 63.4 47.8 4.5 11.1 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 1.9 7.7 7.7 84.7 64.0 44.3 1.2 4.3 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------