***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2018.-15.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 2.5 9.3 9.2 85.2 62.9 47.2 3.2 5.0 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 4.0 10.4 8.5 84.3 64.3 48.3 3.2 6.4 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.3 10.7 10.5 100.0 67.0 50.8 2.1 5.8 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 16.8 26.4 11.0 121.7 72.8 55.6 3.1 11.0 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 4.7 15.4 10.4 115.4 70.7 51.2 4.4 8.8 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.0 18.0 11.2 103.7 63.9 50.0 3.9 8.7 18.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.8 7.9 8.5 81.6 60.9 47.5 2.7 5.1 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 16.0 36.8 12.5 114.6 65.4 50.7 16.3 26.9 37.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.4 20.4 11.5 114.0 70.4 54.4 4.3 7.0 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 6.9 20.6 13.2 109.0 66.4 50.5 7.8 15.0 20.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 5.0 17.6 9.6 117.0 70.1 49.3 2.8 10.8 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 7.8 26.7 9.9 117.0 67.6 51.0 7.3 16.5 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 4.9 19.1 10.5 119.7 71.7 49.3 5.4 10.2 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.4 23.3 14.0 103.1 67.5 52.3 5.9 9.0 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.1 6.8 9.3 126.4 74.7 55.8 1.3 4.6 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 5.8 19.3 10.4 126.8 73.5 51.2 5.2 13.0 18.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.8 7.2 7.9 74.7 58.6 45.0 3.1 5.8 13.9 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 8.8 25.9 16.2 114.4 66.5 52.9 11.4 18.1 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 5.2 11.8 9.3 93.4 66.0 50.3 5.1 9.3 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 8.4 23.2 17.5 126.0 69.2 54.5 11.0 15.4 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.4 12.2 10.9 105.6 70.5 53.6 4.9 9.5 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.9 10.5 9.0 84.7 59.6 48.6 2.8 9.0 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 4.5 15.6 10.4 101.3 67.5 51.4 4.1 10.2 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 6.6 17.7 13.5 106.5 67.9 52.7 6.8 11.9 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.1 11.4 9.9 87.2 65.0 48.7 2.4 6.7 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.8 12.2 8.1 113.1 70.8 52.2 4.1 8.4 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 11.1 10.0 9.7 83.0 61.9 47.1 3.1 6.6 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.0 11.2 10.4 127.6 73.5 54.1 1.5 6.4 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 29.1 28.5 17.6 120.6 68.4 55.3 13.8 18.3 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.8 12.2 9.2 91.0 64.8 49.6 3.1 6.6 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------