***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2018.-08.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 14.9 26.4 20.1 144.7 76.1 57.3 3.6 11.1 18.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 12.9 18.2 16.4 128.2 72.6 53.8 4.8 11.1 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 14.1 21.5 19.2 136.5 75.8 56.6 3.7 11.8 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 13.0 16.7 17.7 143.2 77.1 64.2 3.8 5.0 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.8 17.6 16.1 124.6 72.6 57.8 2.2 7.1 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 11.4 14.1 18.4 133.9 73.7 64.4 1.7 5.9 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 7.7 24.1 16.5 122.9 71.0 52.5 6.6 16.2 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 25.1 28.9 18.9 142.8 72.3 63.7 9.2 14.9 25.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 17.4 24.2 21.9 159.9 78.2 65.3 2.0 6.4 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 21.8 21.2 20.6 140.0 70.9 61.9 5.6 12.8 19.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 12.1 13.5 17.4 128.6 70.5 61.2 4.3 6.9 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 14.3 14.8 16.9 144.9 74.8 64.5 4.9 9.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 7.2 10.9 15.2 129.4 73.2 59.3 3.3 5.3 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 7.3 34.0 22.1 135.1 72.4 57.9 5.5 13.9 22.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 5.4 9.0 12.3 114.8 71.3 57.0 0.7 2.2 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 10.0 9.8 14.6 128.2 71.9 60.7 3.6 6.4 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.2 13.5 15.7 122.9 69.9 51.8 4.0 7.7 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 16.3 16.5 22.8 141.6 74.4 63.7 8.1 10.6 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 12.6 17.9 16.5 127.5 71.6 55.1 5.0 8.9 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 19.0 19.4 19.4 124.3 70.9 60.9 7.8 11.9 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 14.7 19.6 23.0 165.5 80.3 66.2 2.9 8.9 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 6.1 18.4 15.1 117.5 68.1 53.8 3.6 11.5 17.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 13.9 21.3 18.0 131.8 71.0 57.7 5.8 9.6 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 18.8 20.8 22.2 142.9 74.3 61.9 6.8 10.3 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.9 15.9 18.8 128.1 72.0 55.6 3.2 9.0 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 2.8 14.7 12.4 121.6 70.8 57.8 3.2 5.4 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 15.0 20.5 21.5 140.0 74.2 57.1 4.4 11.9 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 6.9 14.3 14.2 127.0 73.3 60.6 1.5 3.5 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 24.6 25.6 23.6 134.7 73.8 62.6 11.3 18.0 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 12.2 17.0 17.4 132.5 73.4 55.4 6.5 9.3 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------