***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2018.-01.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 20.8 42.3 44.7 317.0 96.9 85.5 5.6 9.6 14.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 19.9 35.0 33.0 261.8 90.2 77.6 9.8 13.8 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 20.9 29.5 41.7 322.6 95.3 84.8 7.1 11.9 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 7 93 100 18.2 38.9 48.6 347.4 96.1 89.5 6.3 9.2 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 16.6 74.8 58.7 461.5 99.8 92.8 3.7 6.4 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 4 96 100 19.5 27.0 45.7 261.0 94.2 87.7 1.1 4.7 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 16.2 27.6 32.5 269.0 90.6 78.4 7.4 10.2 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 5 95 100 38.3 82.6 55.6 317.9 98.2 91.6 5.6 18.3 32.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 12 88 100 20.3 47.8 49.2 347.5 99.0 88.9 3.7 5.7 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 9 91 100 22.3 71.0 57.3 329.5 98.3 90.2 5.1 10.9 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 20.1 60.9 54.3 456.1 99.5 93.0 2.4 5.4 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 21.7 53.3 49.3 372.5 99.1 93.0 4.5 10.8 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 8 92 100 11.0 21.3 57.5 397.9 98.9 92.7 1.5 6.9 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 28.1 61.5 46.8 264.9 92.9 80.6 8.7 14.1 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 13.9 51.0 38.0 332.4 93.8 83.3 0.1 2.3 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 11.8 40.6 52.0 387.1 98.6 91.9 1.0 4.2 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 20.2 31.3 27.6 240.1 88.5 75.4 4.5 11.1 16.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 25.7 54.4 54.0 279.7 95.7 87.7 7.7 14.3 22.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 19.7 33.9 34.3 258.5 90.2 78.1 6.6 10.3 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 4 96 100 28.5 51.5 56.9 299.4 98.4 91.4 8.2 11.9 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 12 88 100 19.7 56.5 46.6 343.2 99.2 87.4 6.7 9.2 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 15.4 24.6 26.1 218.7 86.4 73.5 5.0 8.6 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 25.9 40.6 35.8 254.2 90.2 78.4 8.9 13.4 16.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 12 88 100 37.2 57.9 47.2 295.9 94.7 84.6 9.8 19.9 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 10 90 100 20.6 38.4 57.5 388.9 98.6 89.4 7.1 10.1 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 15.8 30.5 46.5 403.1 99.0 93.9 0.4 3.1 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 26.4 43.4 47.2 313.8 96.5 85.4 6.0 12.0 18.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 13.5 24.4 44.9 335.5 95.4 87.6 1.9 4.5 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 9 91 100 39.6 67.3 52.8 283.9 96.6 88.2 12.6 15.4 22.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 24.1 42.8 35.7 277.8 92.1 80.1 8.9 14.9 22.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------