***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2018.-22.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 27.5 27.8 27.3 -1.2 28.7 30.1 27.9 28.4 29.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 27.2 27.6 27.7 -0.9 37.5 36.4 27.5 28.3 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 27.3 27.7 27.5 -1.2 30.4 31.0 27.8 28.1 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 81 19 0 100 20.1 19.5 24.4 -2.0 12.7 17.6 20.5 21.3 21.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 27.7 26.9 24.9 -2.0 11.4 17.2 27.8 28.8 29.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 86 14 0 100 26.2 25.5 22.4 -2.0 7.7 14.4 26.6 27.4 28.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 27.2 28.0 27.6 -0.9 37.9 36.2 27.6 28.2 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 88 12 0 100 15.5 14.8 22.7 -2.2 8.9 14.0 15.9 16.4 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 74 26 0 100 27.2 26.8 25.6 -1.7 17.0 21.0 27.6 28.3 29.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 81 19 0 100 26.9 26.5 23.8 -2.0 13.7 18.0 27.3 28.1 28.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 82 18 0 100 27.0 26.3 24.7 -2.1 10.3 15.8 27.5 28.4 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 88 12 0 100 26.3 25.6 23.9 -2.3 7.9 13.9 27.0 27.5 28.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 86 14 0 100 27.3 26.5 23.7 -2.3 7.1 13.6 27.8 28.9 29.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 27.1 27.3 25.5 -1.2 28.7 29.9 27.4 27.9 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 77 23 0 100 28.2 27.8 26.3 -1.7 14.7 20.9 28.7 29.4 29.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 82 18 0 100 27.9 27.3 24.3 -2.1 9.5 15.5 28.4 29.3 30.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 26.8 27.4 27.6 -0.7 40.1 39.5 27.1 27.6 28.3 29 Palic 37000G16 81 19 0 100 26.0 25.8 23.2 -1.8 17.9 20.4 26.5 27.2 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 26.8 27.6 27.7 -0.9 37.7 36.8 27.4 27.8 28.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 87 13 0 100 21.6 20.8 20.6 -2.2 9.8 14.1 22.4 22.9 23.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 27.2 27.3 26.5 -1.7 20.6 22.9 27.4 28.4 28.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 28.4 27.9 27.6 -0.5 42.6 42.3 27.6 28.1 28.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 27.2 27.7 27.6 -0.8 38.0 37.1 27.5 28.0 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 26.7 26.8 25.4 -1.5 25.4 25.7 26.9 27.7 28.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 27.3 26.8 25.5 -1.6 20.1 23.1 27.8 28.6 29.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 86 14 0 100 27.1 26.8 23.6 -2.1 10.1 15.4 27.6 28.4 28.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 26.8 27.0 26.4 -1.3 27.1 28.6 27.4 28.0 28.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 82 18 0 100 28.1 27.7 25.0 -2.0 10.2 16.9 28.8 29.6 29.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 85 15 0 100 21.1 20.8 22.2 -1.9 15.2 18.6 21.8 22.5 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 27.0 27.6 27.6 -1.0 35.9 34.9 27.4 28.1 28.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------