***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2018.-15.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 27.9 27.4 28.6 -0.1 51.5 49.8 26.1 27.1 29.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 28.1 27.6 28.9 0.2 54.6 52.6 26.5 27.5 28.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 28.1 27.5 29.0 0.0 52.8 51.2 26.3 27.3 28.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 19.5 19.7 26.2 -0.9 40.3 41.2 19.4 20.9 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 26.5 27.0 26.5 -0.8 39.2 42.1 26.9 27.5 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 25.6 26.2 23.9 -0.9 39.2 40.4 25.2 26.6 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 28.2 27.7 28.9 0.2 55.8 52.8 26.7 27.5 28.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 14.9 14.8 24.4 -1.0 37.4 39.7 14.7 16.2 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 26.3 26.9 26.8 -0.6 41.9 44.9 26.7 27.1 28.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 26.2 26.7 25.3 -0.8 40.1 42.8 26.1 27.4 28.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 26.2 26.6 26.0 -0.9 38.1 41.2 26.5 27.4 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 25.3 25.8 25.6 -1.1 35.9 38.9 25.8 26.5 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 26.6 26.8 24.8 -1.2 34.4 37.9 26.8 27.8 29.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 27.6 26.9 26.7 -0.1 51.9 50.4 26.4 26.9 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 27.5 28.1 27.3 -0.7 43.5 42.4 27.7 28.5 30.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 27.3 27.9 25.7 -0.9 37.6 40.4 27.3 28.6 30.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 27.8 27.8 29.0 0.4 57.8 54.5 25.7 27.2 28.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 26.8 25.7 24.9 -0.6 42.8 45.2 25.2 26.1 27.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 27.7 27.4 29.0 0.2 55.3 53.1 26.0 27.1 28.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 22.7 21.3 22.1 -1.0 38.9 40.2 21.0 22.0 23.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 26.3 27.0 27.8 -0.4 44.4 46.3 26.4 27.2 28.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 28.2 28.2 28.9 0.6 61.2 56.9 26.3 27.7 28.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 27.8 27.4 28.9 0.3 56.4 53.5 26.1 27.0 28.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 27.2 26.5 26.7 -0.2 49.1 48.7 25.9 26.5 27.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 26.8 27.6 26.7 -0.5 45.1 45.4 26.9 28.0 29.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 26.3 26.8 25.6 -0.7 39.3 42.7 26.4 27.2 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 28.1 27.4 27.7 -0.1 50.6 49.3 25.9 27.4 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 27.2 27.9 26.4 -0.9 39.9 40.5 27.6 28.4 30.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.3 21.6 23.8 -0.6 42.2 44.2 20.3 21.8 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 28.0 27.7 28.9 0.1 54.7 52.0 26.3 27.4 28.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------