***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2018.-08.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 29.1 28.1 27.7 -0.6 41.4 43.4 27.7 28.7 29.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 28.9 28.5 28.0 -0.4 45.1 46.1 27.4 28.6 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 28.8 27.9 27.9 -0.6 41.7 42.8 27.3 28.3 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 20.1 20.7 24.7 -1.3 33.9 34.6 20.6 21.6 22.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 27.4 28.4 25.5 -1.3 33.7 34.5 28.3 29.1 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 26.1 25.9 23.0 -1.2 33.2 34.9 25.8 27.9 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 28.6 27.8 28.0 -0.4 44.7 46.7 27.2 28.3 29.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 15.2 15.5 23.3 -1.4 30.3 33.3 15.5 16.5 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 27.2 27.4 26.3 -1.0 36.1 37.3 27.2 28.4 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 27.0 27.4 24.3 -1.3 32.5 35.0 27.5 28.5 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 26.9 27.4 25.4 -1.4 31.8 33.1 27.5 28.9 29.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 26.3 26.5 24.4 -1.5 30.3 32.5 26.5 27.6 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 27.1 27.4 24.5 -1.5 31.8 32.5 27.4 29.1 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 28.5 27.9 26.3 -0.5 42.9 44.1 27.3 28.2 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 28.1 28.0 26.9 -1.0 34.7 37.1 27.9 29.9 30.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 27.6 28.4 24.9 -1.4 32.9 33.4 28.4 29.8 30.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 27.9 27.5 28.0 -0.1 49.5 49.4 26.7 27.5 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 26.2 26.6 23.7 -1.1 33.7 37.2 26.6 27.5 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 28.4 28.0 28.0 -0.4 45.7 46.1 27.1 28.1 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 21.3 21.5 21.3 -1.3 31.0 34.3 21.5 22.6 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 27.3 27.8 27.2 -1.0 36.2 38.5 27.6 28.4 29.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 28.8 28.6 28.1 0.1 53.3 52.0 27.4 28.5 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 28.5 28.0 28.0 -0.2 47.1 47.1 27.2 28.1 29.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 26.5 27.2 26.0 -0.8 38.4 40.6 27.0 27.7 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 29.2 27.7 26.0 -0.9 37.0 38.6 27.3 28.7 29.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 26.7 27.3 24.0 -1.3 33.6 34.4 27.3 28.1 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 28.6 27.8 26.9 -0.6 40.9 42.7 26.8 28.2 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 27.7 28.7 25.5 -1.3 33.4 34.3 28.6 29.8 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 21.2 21.6 22.9 -1.1 32.8 36.6 21.6 22.5 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 28.6 28.0 28.0 -0.4 44.1 45.3 27.1 28.3 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------