***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2018.-01.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 96 4 0 100 24.6 23.4 22.8 -4.5 3.9 7.0 26.8 27.6 29.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 96 4 0 100 25.6 24.4 23.3 -4.2 5.9 8.8 26.0 27.6 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 97 3 0 100 25.0 23.5 22.7 -4.8 3.9 7.0 26.2 27.2 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 17.0 15.9 19.2 -5.4 0.3 2.5 19.1 20.5 21.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 24.7 23.4 20.1 -5.6 0.3 3.0 26.5 27.8 28.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 100 0 0 100 23.7 21.8 17.7 -5.3 2.1 3.6 25.1 26.0 28.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 95 5 0 100 25.1 23.5 23.3 -4.1 5.5 8.3 25.9 27.2 28.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 100 0 0 100 13.3 10.3 17.7 -5.7 1.2 2.6 14.6 15.7 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 24.2 23.1 21.2 -5.3 0.9 3.6 25.7 27.5 28.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 100 0 0 100 24.2 22.6 18.9 -5.5 1.2 3.3 25.4 26.7 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 100 0 0 100 24.2 22.3 20.2 -5.7 1.0 3.1 26.0 27.1 29.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 100 0 0 100 23.8 21.5 18.8 -5.7 1.0 2.7 25.2 26.0 28.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 24.8 23.0 19.6 -5.6 2.0 3.9 26.1 27.4 29.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 97 3 0 100 24.8 23.8 21.3 -4.7 4.7 6.9 25.9 27.1 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 99 1 0 100 26.2 24.2 22.3 -4.9 1.0 3.1 27.2 28.3 29.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 100 0 0 100 24.9 23.5 19.6 -5.6 1.2 3.3 26.6 27.8 29.9 30 Nis 06700G01 95 5 0 100 25.1 23.0 23.2 -4.0 5.9 9.0 26.0 26.5 27.5 29 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 23.2 21.9 18.1 -5.4 2.0 3.8 25.4 25.9 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 96 4 0 100 24.9 23.7 23.2 -4.3 5.7 8.8 25.8 27.0 28.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 100 0 0 100 19.3 16.7 15.7 -5.7 2.3 3.1 20.5 21.9 24.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 99 1 0 100 24.8 23.1 22.1 -5.2 1.3 4.4 26.0 27.3 28.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 95 5 0 100 25.6 23.8 23.2 -3.9 5.6 9.7 26.6 27.1 27.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 96 4 0 100 24.9 23.7 23.0 -4.3 5.9 9.0 26.0 27.5 28.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 99 1 0 100 24.0 23.1 20.8 -5.1 3.0 5.3 25.6 26.5 28.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 98 2 0 100 24.6 23.6 21.2 -5.0 2.5 4.9 26.1 27.6 28.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 24.2 22.3 18.1 -5.7 2.4 3.1 26.0 27.2 29.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 98 2 0 100 24.5 23.6 22.1 -4.6 4.1 6.4 25.9 27.1 27.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 100 0 0 100 25.7 23.8 20.3 -5.3 0.5 2.5 27.5 28.4 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 18.7 17.2 17.3 -5.5 2.3 3.8 20.2 21.8 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 96 4 0 100 25.3 23.7 23.3 -4.3 5.9 8.7 25.7 27.3 28.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------