***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2018.-22.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.4 17.2 -0.6 35.7 35.8 15.3 15.7 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.1 17.3 -0.4 43.2 41.8 14.6 15.5 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.6 16.9 17.5 -0.5 38.4 38.4 16.6 17.3 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 11.8 11.8 14.8 -0.8 29.0 30.8 11.8 12.8 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 13.0 13.5 14.9 -0.8 27.6 30.6 13.6 14.0 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 12.1 12.3 12.9 -0.6 28.7 33.0 12.3 13.0 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 15.9 15.3 17.4 -0.4 42.2 40.8 15.0 15.7 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 7.4 7.5 12.5 -0.7 28.8 31.6 7.8 8.2 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 14.5 14.5 15.2 -0.6 32.6 34.8 14.5 15.2 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 14.3 14.4 13.5 -0.6 31.0 33.8 14.5 15.0 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 14.2 14.2 14.5 -0.7 30.1 32.6 14.2 15.1 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 11.9 12.0 13.2 -0.8 25.1 28.8 12.4 13.0 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 13.4 13.7 13.2 -0.7 28.0 30.6 13.8 14.1 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.1 15.5 15.2 -0.4 39.9 41.6 15.2 15.9 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 15.8 15.8 16.4 -0.6 32.5 34.2 15.8 16.3 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 14.4 14.5 13.9 -0.7 29.1 30.8 14.8 15.1 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 16.4 16.1 17.2 -0.2 45.9 45.4 15.4 16.3 16.6 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 12.8 13.0 12.8 -0.5 34.4 35.8 13.0 13.7 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.2 17.3 -0.4 43.3 42.1 14.9 15.5 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 8.6 8.7 10.5 -0.7 27.7 30.0 8.9 9.4 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 14.2 14.5 16.4 -0.6 33.6 34.5 14.5 15.0 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 15.3 15.1 17.2 -0.2 48.3 47.1 14.5 15.2 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 15.0 14.7 17.2 -0.4 42.9 42.2 14.4 14.8 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.0 15.1 -0.4 39.6 39.9 14.5 15.6 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 15.2 14.7 15.8 -0.7 32.7 32.9 14.7 15.0 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 13.3 13.4 12.6 -0.8 23.8 28.5 13.5 13.9 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.4 14.7 16.5 -0.6 35.0 35.3 14.4 15.2 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 13.4 13.4 15.2 -0.7 28.4 30.7 13.7 14.2 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 11.6 11.6 12.1 -0.6 33.4 34.6 11.6 12.4 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.5 17.4 -0.5 41.1 39.9 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------