***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2018.-22.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.5 18.6 0.1 48.9 50.8 14.9 15.5 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.1 16.1 18.8 0.4 55.8 55.8 14.5 15.8 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 18.2 17.9 19.0 0.2 53.1 53.5 16.3 17.8 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.4 12.9 16.0 -0.2 44.6 46.1 12.2 13.0 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.5 14.1 15.8 -0.3 43.3 45.3 12.7 14.1 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.2 12.7 14.2 -0.1 49.0 49.1 11.8 12.8 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.3 18.9 0.4 55.2 55.1 14.9 16.3 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.0 13.7 -0.2 46.2 48.3 7.4 8.1 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.3 14.9 16.0 -0.2 44.9 46.9 14.2 14.9 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.4 14.8 14.6 -0.1 46.1 48.1 13.8 14.9 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.2 14.6 15.4 -0.2 46.3 47.2 13.5 14.9 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.3 12.7 14.4 -0.2 45.2 47.2 11.3 13.0 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 14.2 13.3 13.8 -0.3 42.5 45.1 12.8 13.8 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.0 16.3 0.1 51.7 53.0 14.5 15.9 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 16.6 16.1 17.5 -0.1 46.1 47.8 15.5 16.3 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.0 14.8 -0.2 43.8 46.1 14.1 15.1 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 17.3 17.3 18.7 0.5 59.5 57.5 16.0 17.0 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.1 13.7 13.8 0.0 48.0 50.0 12.1 13.8 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.9 18.8 0.4 56.2 56.2 14.9 15.6 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.4 8.7 11.4 -0.2 44.8 48.3 8.1 9.0 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.1 17.5 -0.1 46.5 48.4 13.8 15.2 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.9 18.7 0.6 61.9 58.8 14.3 15.1 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.6 18.7 0.4 56.0 56.2 14.1 15.3 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.5 16.1 0.1 51.0 52.4 14.6 15.4 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.0 16.9 -0.1 45.5 47.9 14.0 15.2 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.4 13.6 13.7 -0.2 44.1 47.3 13.1 14.1 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.2 17.7 0.0 48.8 50.2 14.2 15.4 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.0 16.4 -0.3 45.0 46.1 12.7 14.2 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.1 12.4 13.2 -0.1 47.6 49.9 11.6 12.8 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.4 18.9 0.3 54.4 54.4 15.0 16.2 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------