***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2018.-15.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 13.9 15.3 17.8 0.0 56.3 51.8 14.6 15.2 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 13.7 14.9 17.9 0.2 57.9 53.9 13.6 14.5 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 15.8 17.4 18.2 0.1 59.9 53.7 15.8 16.8 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 10.9 11.9 15.3 -0.2 48.0 48.7 11.1 11.9 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 12.8 13.8 15.1 -0.2 46.1 48.6 13.0 13.9 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.6 13.5 -0.1 50.6 50.6 12.0 12.6 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 14.1 15.3 18.0 0.2 57.2 52.9 14.6 15.1 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.1 13.1 0.0 50.8 51.6 7.3 8.0 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 14.0 15.0 15.3 -0.2 49.2 49.2 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 14.0 15.2 13.9 -0.1 50.7 50.6 14.1 15.2 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 15.2 14.8 14.7 -0.1 48.4 50.8 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.1 12.9 13.8 -0.1 49.2 50.5 11.8 12.9 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 12.9 13.7 13.1 -0.3 45.2 46.1 13.3 14.0 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 14.6 15.8 15.5 0.0 52.4 51.6 15.0 15.7 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 15.9 16.7 16.7 -0.1 50.1 50.0 15.7 16.7 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 15.6 15.1 14.1 -0.2 45.5 48.2 14.2 15.2 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 14.6 15.9 17.9 0.4 61.4 55.3 14.9 15.6 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 12.2 13.8 13.1 0.0 53.1 51.4 12.4 13.4 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 13.9 15.2 17.9 0.3 59.1 54.7 14.2 14.7 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.4 10.9 -0.1 50.3 51.2 8.8 9.4 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 13.7 15.1 16.8 -0.1 51.9 49.9 13.7 15.0 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 13.7 15.5 17.8 0.5 63.5 57.1 13.9 14.6 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 15.2 14.8 17.7 0.2 58.6 54.7 13.6 14.8 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 14.4 15.9 15.3 0.0 54.0 52.2 14.6 15.6 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 13.6 15.0 16.2 -0.1 50.6 49.8 13.8 15.0 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.0 13.5 13.1 -0.1 48.8 49.4 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 13.7 14.7 17.0 0.0 53.5 51.2 13.5 14.5 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 13.2 13.9 15.6 -0.3 47.0 47.7 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 11.0 12.2 12.5 0.0 52.0 51.6 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 14.2 15.5 18.1 0.2 57.6 53.5 14.5 15.0 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------