***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2018.-08.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 15.3 15.5 17.5 -0.2 43.8 49.7 15.4 15.7 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 16.0 15.7 17.6 0.0 51.1 54.0 15.1 15.7 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 18.0 17.6 17.9 -0.1 48.6 52.5 16.8 17.7 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 11.7 12.5 15.2 -0.2 43.7 48.7 11.9 13.0 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 13.4 14.2 15.5 -0.2 42.3 49.0 13.9 14.7 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.6 13.2 13.1 0.0 46.2 51.3 12.9 13.4 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.2 16.0 17.7 0.0 48.2 52.5 15.6 16.0 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 7.4 8.0 12.7 -0.3 39.7 45.2 7.7 8.3 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 14.5 15.3 15.7 0.0 49.2 52.2 15.0 15.3 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 14.4 15.2 13.8 -0.2 44.7 49.1 14.7 15.4 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 14.0 14.9 14.9 -0.2 44.4 49.0 14.7 15.0 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 13.5 12.8 13.6 -0.4 38.4 43.7 12.7 13.3 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 14.9 14.5 13.7 -0.2 45.5 49.3 14.3 14.7 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 16.8 16.4 15.7 0.2 55.6 55.8 15.5 16.3 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 15.5 16.4 16.8 -0.1 48.8 51.0 16.0 16.4 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 14.7 15.5 14.4 -0.2 44.2 49.5 15.2 15.7 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.4 17.6 0.2 56.7 56.4 15.4 16.2 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 14.2 14.0 13.3 0.0 49.5 52.1 13.2 14.0 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 14.5 15.5 17.7 0.1 52.5 54.5 15.1 15.3 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.9 9.9 11.1 -0.2 44.3 46.7 9.2 10.0 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 14.2 15.4 16.9 -0.1 46.9 51.7 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 15.9 15.5 17.7 0.3 58.0 57.3 14.7 15.2 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 14.1 15.2 17.5 0.1 54.3 55.4 14.5 15.0 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 16.0 16.0 15.6 0.1 55.1 55.2 15.1 15.6 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 14.5 15.1 16.3 -0.3 41.8 47.9 14.9 15.5 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.6 13.9 12.9 -0.3 39.5 46.4 13.8 14.4 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 14.3 15.0 16.8 -0.3 43.1 48.7 14.6 15.3 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 13.4 14.4 15.7 -0.1 45.7 49.8 13.8 14.5 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.3 12.5 -0.1 48.4 50.3 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 14.9 16.1 17.8 -0.1 46.7 52.5 15.4 16.1 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------