***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2018.-01.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 99 1 0 100 13.0 12.9 14.8 -2.3 15.3 16.1 14.2 15.3 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 95 5 0 100 13.1 13.1 14.8 -2.2 16.4 18.6 13.5 14.9 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 98 2 0 100 14.9 14.8 15.0 -2.3 15.5 16.4 15.6 16.6 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 98 2 0 100 9.5 9.1 12.5 -2.4 12.0 13.7 10.7 11.4 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 97 3 0 100 11.1 10.7 13.0 -2.3 13.6 14.9 12.4 13.9 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 92 8 0 100 10.5 10.1 10.7 -2.1 13.5 15.2 11.9 12.5 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 93 7 0 100 13.3 13.2 14.9 -2.1 16.1 18.6 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 96 4 0 100 5.3 4.9 10.3 -2.3 9.5 13.1 6.8 7.5 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 96 4 0 100 13.1 12.9 13.6 -1.9 14.8 17.0 13.7 14.8 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 94 6 0 100 13.0 12.8 11.6 -2.1 12.3 15.5 13.7 14.7 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 94 6 0 100 12.8 12.5 12.8 -2.2 10.8 13.7 13.3 14.7 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 98 2 0 100 10.2 9.2 11.2 -2.5 7.9 11.2 11.2 12.8 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 90 10 0 100 11.8 11.9 12.0 -1.9 18.1 17.9 12.9 13.9 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 81 19 0 100 13.7 13.9 13.5 -1.8 19.9 22.6 14.4 15.1 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 96 4 0 100 14.0 13.3 14.7 -2.0 11.5 14.3 15.2 15.6 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 93 7 0 100 12.9 12.6 12.4 -2.1 15.1 15.6 13.5 14.7 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 89 11 0 100 13.8 13.8 14.7 -2.0 19.5 20.6 14.3 15.3 16.0 29 Palic 37000G16 91 9 0 100 11.4 11.0 11.0 -2.1 14.5 16.6 12.4 13.3 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 95 5 0 100 13.0 13.0 14.8 -2.2 16.8 18.4 13.9 14.8 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 99 1 0 100 7.4 6.7 8.6 -2.4 10.8 12.9 8.0 9.2 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 99 1 0 100 12.7 12.6 14.5 -2.1 14.2 15.9 13.6 14.7 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 92 8 0 100 12.7 12.7 14.8 -2.0 19.9 20.8 13.3 14.4 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 95 5 0 100 12.5 12.7 14.8 -2.1 19.2 18.8 13.4 13.9 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 89 11 0 100 12.8 12.9 13.3 -1.9 17.3 18.7 14.1 14.6 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 97 3 0 100 12.7 12.6 13.9 -2.3 14.8 16.0 13.6 14.3 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 97 3 0 100 11.6 11.1 10.6 -2.4 11.6 13.7 12.7 13.3 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 97 3 0 100 12.0 11.9 14.3 -2.2 15.1 16.4 13.4 14.3 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 96 4 0 100 11.8 10.9 13.2 -2.3 10.6 13.1 12.7 13.9 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 93 7 0 100 9.5 9.3 10.1 -2.2 13.4 15.9 10.6 11.5 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 97 3 0 100 13.0 12.9 14.9 -2.2 15.4 17.6 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------