***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2012.-22.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 88 12 0 100 9999.0 0.0 19.1 37.1 18.6 18.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 79 21 0 100 29.1 26.2 19.8 39.4 19.9 18.5 39.3 42.8 50.0 30 Becej 27400G00 88 12 0 100 26.2 24.2 19.6 38.4 17.2 18.5 31.3 40.8 59.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 88 12 0 100 21.0 17.1 20.3 39.3 16.7 19.0 34.6 53.0 68.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 86 14 0 100 27.9 26.1 19.4 38.3 16.5 18.8 39.7 43.6 52.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 84 16 0 100 24.7 21.9 27.6 41.5 15.6 18.0 32.0 39.0 53.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 81 19 0 100 25.6 23.3 21.2 41.7 19.9 19.5 32.8 43.4 53.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 87 13 0 100 44.7 39.9 19.6 36.7 14.2 16.0 64.3 74.8 89.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 86 14 0 100 24.0 22.3 19.3 37.2 17.2 18.3 29.7 44.7 54.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 89 11 0 100 27.3 21.2 21.4 36.8 14.6 16.4 50.2 60.3 74.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 85 15 0 100 21.4 18.4 15.4 33.9 15.7 16.7 25.2 36.5 54.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 87 13 0 100 21.6 17.6 14.4 33.2 15.3 16.2 35.7 45.1 66.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 90 10 0 100 16.0 15.1 18.7 36.0 17.3 17.9 20.6 29.7 43.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 85 15 0 100 40.3 38.2 23.4 37.9 18.7 18.2 48.8 65.0 79.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 82 18 0 100 11.5 11.2 19.9 43.0 21.7 23.0 19.3 34.3 49.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 87 13 0 100 14.9 12.4 18.2 36.8 17.6 18.5 25.0 39.9 45.0 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 27.0 28.1 21.2 43.6 22.0 21.4 30.2 44.5 52.9 29 Palic 37000G16 87 13 0 100 37.4 34.4 26.6 38.7 16.0 17.1 46.9 57.2 78.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 80 20 0 100 26.7 26.9 19.3 38.3 20.9 18.5 35.3 42.1 71.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 88 12 0 100 39.7 33.4 27.5 40.9 14.2 17.0 52.7 64.0 66.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 88 12 0 100 24.0 21.4 17.9 36.6 16.9 18.5 26.6 44.8 58.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 29.6 30.2 21.2 44.8 23.5 21.9 35.0 46.3 58.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 84 16 0 100 31.7 31.7 19.5 37.4 23.6 19.6 37.6 50.3 60.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 85 15 0 100 32.7 29.3 24.0 38.9 18.1 18.5 42.7 62.4 85.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 85 15 0 100 25.0 22.6 23.4 40.0 17.6 18.9 28.8 45.1 70.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 19.5 17.8 15.6 38.0 21.1 20.9 20.3 27.0 40.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 83 17 0 100 30.3 28.5 23.8 40.2 20.0 19.5 40.6 49.1 62.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 85 15 0 100 18.5 17.5 20.0 40.9 18.6 20.8 22.7 33.1 44.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 88 12 0 100 51.7 47.7 27.0 38.8 15.1 16.8 59.5 78.6 95.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 81 19 0 100 29.3 29.3 20.0 39.3 20.6 18.5 39.2 42.7 68.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------