***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2012.-15.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.6 34.3 42.2 34.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.9 5.4 4.8 39.8 45.4 38.4 3.2 6.4 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.8 3.9 4.6 36.5 42.1 34.2 2.1 5.8 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.6 8.0 4.2 29.3 44.8 32.5 3.1 11.0 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 4.5 8.4 4.1 30.4 42.0 31.5 4.4 8.8 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.3 6.9 7.1 38.5 43.8 35.3 3.9 8.7 18.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 2.3 4.8 5.2 42.2 46.1 38.6 2.7 5.1 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 14.4 20.7 4.7 34.7 39.2 31.8 16.3 26.9 37.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 2.7 4.4 4.1 30.9 39.2 29.9 4.3 7.0 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 5.5 9.1 4.9 33.0 39.2 30.4 7.8 15.0 20.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 4.4 4.6 3.4 28.6 40.0 31.4 2.8 10.8 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 6.5 12.8 3.5 31.3 41.0 32.5 7.3 16.5 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 4.9 7.1 4.9 34.7 44.7 34.0 5.4 10.2 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 4.8 7.3 5.4 35.8 40.2 31.8 5.9 9.0 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.1 4.6 3.9 31.2 50.1 36.6 1.3 4.6 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 6.3 11.0 4.2 31.3 43.1 33.3 5.2 13.0 18.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.8 5.8 5.5 50.4 50.0 41.8 3.1 5.8 13.9 29 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 8.0 13.6 6.1 34.6 38.1 29.1 11.4 18.1 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.7 8.5 4.6 37.6 45.9 37.9 5.1 9.3 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 6.4 14.0 6.7 37.7 38.8 29.3 11.0 15.4 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 4.4 6.4 3.8 30.9 39.8 30.3 4.9 9.5 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.1 9.3 5.5 51.5 51.8 40.9 2.8 9.0 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.8 6.7 4.4 35.7 44.8 36.5 4.1 10.2 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 6.2 10.1 5.4 35.7 40.8 31.2 6.8 11.9 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 2.7 4.4 5.0 31.7 41.1 31.8 2.4 6.7 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 3.7 8.1 4.2 38.1 48.8 36.2 4.1 8.4 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.6 4.9 5.6 35.0 42.5 33.7 3.1 6.6 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.9 5.7 4.1 29.9 47.3 34.0 1.5 6.4 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 11.8 15.1 6.2 34.8 39.5 28.7 13.8 18.3 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.7 5.4 4.8 37.7 43.5 36.7 3.1 6.6 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------