***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2012.-08.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 9999.0 0.0 5.0 42.9 46.4 32.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 4.3 6.6 4.3 36.4 40.2 29.8 4.8 11.1 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 4.2 8.0 5.0 41.9 43.4 30.6 3.7 11.8 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 1.9 5.0 5.9 48.1 46.2 32.9 3.8 5.0 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 2.3 6.3 5.7 48.7 48.3 32.5 2.2 7.1 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 2.1 2.3 8.8 45.7 39.8 31.4 1.7 5.9 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 5.9 9.3 4.9 39.5 39.9 31.3 6.6 16.2 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 6.7 9.7 5.7 40.7 39.5 28.3 9.2 14.9 25.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 1.9 5.2 5.8 47.2 47.3 29.7 2.0 6.4 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 4.4 7.3 6.2 42.9 40.4 28.8 5.6 12.8 19.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 2.6 6.1 4.7 42.6 43.3 29.3 4.3 6.9 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 2.6 7.1 4.4 39.2 42.4 27.7 4.9 9.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 1.3 3.8 5.9 42.1 43.4 30.0 3.3 5.3 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 4.4 5.9 5.7 40.3 36.7 28.5 5.5 13.9 22.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 0.7 2.2 6.2 55.7 50.0 37.2 0.7 2.2 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 2.8 5.8 5.9 45.7 43.4 31.8 3.6 6.4 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 3.0 4.9 4.3 36.8 41.0 30.2 4.0 7.7 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 5.6 9.4 7.3 42.8 39.5 29.3 8.1 10.6 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 3.9 6.3 4.2 36.4 39.9 29.9 5.0 8.9 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 4.2 8.4 7.8 43.7 36.7 29.7 7.8 11.9 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 3.6 8.9 4.9 44.1 50.1 29.6 2.9 8.9 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 3.5 6.6 3.9 34.9 38.1 28.0 3.6 11.5 17.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 4.4 7.2 4.5 38.4 40.6 30.9 5.8 9.6 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 3.8 8.8 6.4 42.6 40.6 28.7 6.8 10.3 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 3.3 6.2 6.7 49.7 45.4 29.9 3.2 9.0 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 1.9 5.3 4.9 44.0 49.6 33.5 3.2 5.4 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 4.4 7.7 6.4 48.0 44.7 31.2 4.4 11.9 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 1.0 2.7 6.1 51.2 47.2 35.1 1.5 3.5 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 6.2 11.6 7.4 42.3 37.3 28.7 11.3 18.0 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 5.9 7.5 4.7 39.2 42.0 31.4 6.5 9.3 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------