***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2012.-01.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 80 20 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.9 28.2 20.2 21.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 4.9 7.6 4.7 27.6 24.5 21.2 9.8 13.8 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 5.5 4.5 4.6 26.8 22.0 20.0 7.1 11.9 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 83 17 0 100 2.5 5.1 5.5 32.2 25.7 23.5 6.3 9.2 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 1.6 3.2 5.2 31.1 26.1 21.5 3.7 6.4 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 1.1 0.2 5.3 29.4 21.7 20.9 1.1 4.7 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 5.3 6.4 5.5 32.7 28.6 22.1 7.4 10.2 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 87 13 0 100 2.4 0.0 3.6 22.1 17.0 15.7 5.6 18.3 32.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 1.8 1.6 5.0 29.7 27.5 19.9 3.7 5.7 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 85 15 0 100 3.1 4.1 4.7 25.9 21.1 17.4 5.1 10.9 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 84 16 0 100 0.9 0.2 3.7 25.4 21.2 18.3 2.4 5.4 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 2.1 0.0 2.8 20.5 18.6 16.4 4.5 10.8 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 1.5 0.1 3.6 24.0 22.8 19.0 1.5 6.9 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 88 12 0 100 6.1 6.4 4.5 22.7 22.7 19.8 8.7 14.1 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 0.7 0.1 5.2 32.9 32.7 27.7 0.1 2.3 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 81 19 0 100 0.8 0.2 4.0 27.5 24.8 21.3 1.0 4.2 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 74 26 0 100 3.9 4.0 5.4 32.4 30.4 25.2 4.5 11.1 16.2 29 Palic 37000G16 83 17 0 100 3.4 4.7 5.3 26.0 20.8 18.2 7.7 14.3 22.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 80 20 0 100 3.2 3.4 4.3 24.7 22.0 20.5 6.6 10.3 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 82 18 0 100 5.5 4.1 4.1 22.0 16.2 16.2 8.2 11.9 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 83 17 0 100 4.7 5.6 5.2 30.7 26.4 20.7 6.7 9.2 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 79 21 0 100 4.5 4.7 5.4 32.4 29.0 25.4 5.0 8.6 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 85 15 0 100 5.0 6.6 4.0 21.9 20.9 19.9 8.9 13.4 16.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 86 14 0 100 8.7 7.7 5.2 26.6 23.6 20.2 9.8 19.9 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 5.1 5.9 6.0 31.7 25.2 22.3 7.1 10.1 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 1.0 0.2 3.4 26.3 25.7 22.0 0.4 3.1 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 77 23 0 100 4.6 3.1 5.9 30.8 24.0 22.7 6.0 12.0 18.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 1.5 1.6 5.3 33.8 29.8 26.1 1.9 4.5 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 86 14 0 100 6.8 6.9 5.1 24.5 19.4 17.1 12.6 15.4 22.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 5.8 5.7 4.8 28.3 23.2 20.6 8.9 14.9 22.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------