***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2012.-22.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 9999.0 0.0 31.2 3.4 96.3 92.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 29.4 30.5 31.7 3.9 96.5 94.1 27.5 28.3 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 2 98 100 29.3 30.9 31.8 3.9 97.0 94.7 27.8 28.1 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 22.6 23.5 29.2 2.7 91.8 88.8 20.5 21.3 21.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 3 97 100 29.9 31.5 29.6 3.1 93.5 90.9 27.8 28.8 29.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 4 96 100 28.4 29.7 26.9 2.9 93.9 90.6 26.6 27.4 28.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 1 99 100 29.3 30.4 31.3 3.5 96.3 92.9 27.6 28.2 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 17.6 18.7 27.9 3.3 94.9 92.5 15.9 16.4 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 29.3 30.8 30.1 3.4 96.6 92.6 27.6 28.3 29.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 28.9 30.1 28.7 3.4 95.4 92.9 27.3 28.1 28.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 29.5 30.6 29.3 3.3 94.4 92.3 27.5 28.4 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 28.2 29.8 29.0 3.4 95.5 92.5 27.0 27.5 28.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 29.7 31.2 28.5 3.3 94.7 91.7 27.8 28.9 29.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 4 96 100 29.0 30.2 29.4 3.3 96.5 92.0 27.4 27.9 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 30.0 31.6 30.0 2.6 91.0 88.4 28.7 29.4 29.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 30.6 31.9 28.9 3.1 94.5 91.2 28.4 29.3 30.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 28.8 29.9 30.9 3.4 95.7 92.0 27.1 27.6 28.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 28.1 29.5 27.8 3.4 96.3 92.8 26.5 27.2 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 28.8 30.3 32.0 4.1 96.6 94.9 27.4 27.8 28.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 4 96 100 24.0 25.7 25.6 3.3 95.7 92.3 22.4 22.9 23.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 2 98 100 29.3 31.1 30.9 3.3 95.9 92.3 27.4 28.4 28.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 29.3 30.4 30.8 3.3 94.2 91.2 27.6 28.1 28.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 29.1 30.3 31.7 4.1 96.8 95.3 27.5 28.0 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 4 96 100 28.6 30.1 29.5 3.5 96.5 93.0 26.9 27.7 28.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 29.4 31.1 29.5 3.0 94.4 90.1 27.8 28.6 29.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 29.4 30.2 28.4 3.0 93.2 90.4 27.6 28.4 28.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 28.8 30.5 30.1 3.1 95.3 90.6 27.4 28.0 28.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 30.3 31.7 29.5 2.6 90.7 87.9 28.8 29.6 29.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 23.6 25.0 26.7 3.3 96.0 92.4 21.8 22.5 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 29.0 30.6 31.9 3.9 96.5 94.5 27.4 28.1 28.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------