***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2012.-22.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 9999.0 0.0 31.2 2.6 81.6 74.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 30.6 31.3 31.6 3.0 82.5 76.8 28.0 29.0 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 30.4 31.7 31.6 2.9 83.9 76.5 28.3 29.1 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 23.2 23.9 29.5 2.0 79.1 69.7 21.1 22.1 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 30.8 31.3 29.5 2.3 81.5 72.0 28.2 30.1 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 29.1 29.6 27.1 2.3 82.3 73.1 27.0 28.0 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 30.2 31.0 31.3 2.8 81.9 75.7 28.0 28.8 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 18.4 19.0 27.8 2.5 82.8 73.7 16.3 17.3 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 30.3 31.2 29.9 2.5 84.2 73.8 27.5 29.6 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 30.0 30.6 28.5 2.6 83.5 73.9 27.4 28.8 29.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 30.6 31.4 29.2 2.5 83.1 74.2 27.9 29.5 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 29.3 30.3 29.0 2.6 82.7 74.4 26.9 28.2 28.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 30.7 31.7 28.4 2.5 81.3 73.8 27.8 29.4 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 30.3 30.8 29.2 2.5 79.6 73.9 27.7 28.7 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 31.0 31.4 30.2 2.0 76.7 70.3 29.5 30.2 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 31.7 32.5 28.9 2.4 80.8 73.1 28.6 30.5 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 30.0 30.6 31.0 2.7 79.3 75.1 27.4 28.3 29.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 28.9 29.9 27.5 2.5 81.7 73.3 27.0 27.8 29.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 30.0 30.7 31.8 3.1 83.0 77.6 27.5 28.4 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 24.7 25.4 25.3 2.3 79.3 72.1 22.3 23.0 24.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 30.1 30.3 30.8 2.5 82.6 73.8 28.0 29.5 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 30.3 30.8 30.9 2.7 78.3 74.8 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 30.4 31.2 31.5 3.2 84.5 78.0 27.6 28.6 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 30.1 30.8 29.3 2.6 83.2 74.5 27.3 28.6 29.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 30.4 31.2 29.5 2.2 80.4 71.4 28.3 29.4 30.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 30.0 30.8 28.4 2.2 79.0 72.7 27.9 28.9 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 30.0 30.5 30.1 2.4 80.0 72.6 28.0 28.9 29.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 30.9 31.3 29.8 2.0 77.1 69.9 29.5 30.3 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 24.5 25.1 26.3 2.4 80.0 72.4 22.3 23.0 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 30.3 31.3 31.7 3.0 83.8 77.0 27.9 28.8 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------