***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2012.-15.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 9999.0 0.0 30.9 3.0 87.6 81.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 29.8 31.5 31.3 3.4 90.0 82.8 26.5 27.5 28.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 30.1 31.6 31.3 3.4 89.1 83.5 26.3 27.3 28.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 22.6 24.1 29.2 2.3 84.5 76.6 19.4 20.9 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 30.0 32.0 29.3 2.7 87.4 78.8 26.9 27.5 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 28.7 29.7 26.8 2.5 83.1 77.7 25.2 26.6 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 29.7 31.8 30.9 3.1 89.4 80.7 26.7 27.5 28.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 17.7 18.8 27.6 2.8 87.1 79.3 14.7 16.2 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 29.6 31.8 29.6 2.9 88.2 80.5 26.7 27.1 28.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 29.3 30.7 28.3 2.9 87.7 80.1 26.1 27.4 28.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 29.4 31.2 29.0 2.9 87.7 80.0 26.5 27.4 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 28.6 30.0 28.7 2.8 85.8 79.4 25.8 26.5 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 29.7 30.9 28.1 2.7 84.5 78.6 26.8 27.8 29.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 29.2 30.8 28.9 2.9 85.7 79.5 26.4 26.9 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 30.4 31.6 29.8 2.3 84.6 76.5 27.7 28.5 30.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 30.3 32.0 28.6 2.6 85.4 78.4 27.3 28.6 30.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 29.2 30.8 30.5 2.9 86.9 79.5 25.7 27.2 28.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 28.5 29.9 27.4 2.9 87.6 79.8 25.2 26.1 27.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 29.6 30.9 31.5 3.5 90.4 83.9 26.0 27.1 28.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 24.2 25.8 25.2 2.7 88.2 78.5 21.0 22.0 23.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 29.7 32.0 30.5 2.9 87.9 80.8 26.4 27.2 28.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 29.5 30.6 30.4 2.9 84.5 79.8 26.3 27.7 28.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 30.1 31.0 31.2 3.6 90.3 84.2 26.1 27.0 28.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 29.1 30.7 29.1 3.0 86.8 80.7 25.9 26.5 27.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 30.1 31.5 29.2 2.6 86.3 78.7 26.9 28.0 29.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 29.2 30.0 28.1 2.5 82.0 76.8 26.4 27.2 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 29.6 31.0 29.8 2.7 86.3 79.3 25.9 27.4 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 30.6 31.8 29.4 2.2 83.6 75.6 27.6 28.4 30.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 23.6 25.9 26.2 2.8 87.4 78.7 20.3 21.8 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 29.7 31.3 31.5 3.4 89.9 83.5 26.3 27.4 28.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------