***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2012.-08.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 11 89 100 9999.0 0.0 32.6 4.8 97.7 88.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 7 93 100 29.8 33.7 33.4 5.5 98.6 90.4 27.4 28.6 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 8 92 100 30.1 34.8 33.2 5.4 99.1 89.9 27.3 28.3 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 23.4 25.6 30.6 4.1 91.5 85.7 20.6 21.6 22.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 31.3 33.7 30.9 4.5 93.3 87.3 28.3 29.1 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 13 87 100 29.6 32.8 28.2 4.2 92.4 87.1 25.8 27.9 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 9 91 100 29.7 33.1 32.9 5.1 98.2 89.1 27.2 28.3 29.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 11 89 100 18.4 22.8 29.4 4.8 95.6 88.6 15.5 16.5 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 30.3 34.3 31.4 4.8 96.0 88.3 27.2 28.4 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 29.9 33.1 30.1 4.9 95.5 88.3 27.5 28.5 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 30.6 33.6 30.6 4.7 94.1 88.4 27.5 28.9 29.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 29.3 33.5 30.5 4.8 95.9 88.9 26.5 27.6 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 31.0 34.4 29.7 4.7 94.0 88.1 27.4 29.1 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 11 89 100 29.3 34.2 30.9 4.8 96.7 87.2 27.3 28.2 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 31.2 33.4 31.1 4.0 91.9 85.9 27.9 29.9 30.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 31.6 34.4 30.1 4.5 93.0 87.4 28.4 29.8 30.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 29.1 32.0 32.6 5.0 96.7 88.7 26.7 27.5 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 11 89 100 29.3 33.0 29.3 4.9 96.6 88.2 26.6 27.5 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 29.3 34.0 33.6 5.7 98.9 90.9 27.1 28.1 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 13 87 100 24.9 29.6 27.1 4.8 96.2 88.5 21.5 22.6 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 30.2 35.6 32.2 4.8 96.9 88.2 27.6 28.4 29.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 11 89 100 29.8 33.5 32.5 4.9 96.5 88.1 27.4 28.5 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 7 93 100 29.8 34.3 33.3 5.7 99.2 90.7 27.2 28.1 29.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 10 90 100 29.3 34.0 31.0 4.9 98.0 88.3 27.0 27.7 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 30.4 32.8 30.8 4.4 93.2 87.0 27.3 28.7 29.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 30.1 33.8 29.6 4.4 92.6 87.3 27.3 28.1 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 14 86 100 29.8 32.4 31.5 4.6 94.9 87.1 26.8 28.2 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 13 87 100 31.4 33.3 30.8 4.0 90.6 85.0 28.6 29.8 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 24.7 29.4 28.2 4.8 96.8 88.1 21.6 22.5 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 7 93 100 29.8 33.2 33.5 5.5 99.1 90.3 27.1 28.3 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------