***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2012.-01.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 9999.0 0.0 30.2 3.3 88.8 84.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 7 93 100 29.6 31.2 30.7 3.8 94.5 88.6 26.0 27.6 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 8 92 100 30.2 31.4 30.8 3.8 91.6 88.0 26.2 27.2 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 22.3 23.1 27.7 2.6 82.4 79.3 19.1 20.5 21.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 30.3 31.5 28.5 3.0 82.7 81.7 26.5 27.8 28.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 28.3 29.4 25.6 2.5 80.2 79.1 25.1 26.0 28.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 29.4 31.0 30.1 3.2 93.6 85.7 25.9 27.2 28.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 18.2 19.3 26.8 3.2 87.2 84.0 14.6 15.7 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 30.2 31.3 29.5 3.2 86.2 83.7 25.7 27.5 28.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 29.6 31.0 27.9 3.4 86.7 84.8 25.4 26.7 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 29.9 31.5 28.3 3.1 84.9 82.9 26.0 27.1 29.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 28.6 30.3 27.9 3.3 89.1 84.2 25.2 26.0 28.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 30.0 31.8 27.8 3.3 87.6 84.7 26.1 27.4 29.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 29.3 30.5 28.6 3.0 86.0 82.2 25.9 27.1 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 30.2 31.0 29.0 2.2 78.3 76.7 27.2 28.3 29.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 30.5 32.7 28.1 3.0 87.3 83.4 26.6 27.8 29.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 29.0 30.1 29.6 3.0 91.1 84.1 26.0 26.5 27.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 28.8 30.1 26.9 3.4 87.1 84.6 25.4 25.9 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 5 95 100 29.3 30.9 31.0 4.0 95.4 90.0 25.8 27.0 28.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 24.6 26.0 25.0 3.4 88.4 84.9 20.5 21.9 24.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 29.9 31.2 30.1 3.1 83.1 82.2 26.0 27.3 28.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 29.4 30.8 29.4 2.8 87.9 82.7 26.6 27.1 27.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 5 95 100 30.1 31.3 30.9 4.0 96.1 89.9 26.0 27.5 28.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 29.2 30.7 28.7 3.2 86.6 83.5 25.6 26.5 28.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 29.9 30.7 28.4 2.6 81.2 78.3 26.1 27.6 28.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 29.5 30.5 27.2 3.0 83.7 82.0 26.0 27.2 29.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 29.1 29.8 29.0 2.7 84.0 80.2 25.9 27.1 27.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 30.1 31.0 28.2 2.3 79.6 77.3 27.5 28.4 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 24.3 25.3 26.0 3.3 87.0 84.1 20.2 21.8 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 7 93 100 29.7 31.0 30.9 3.8 95.1 88.9 25.7 27.3 28.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------