***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2012.-22.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 9999.0 0.0 19.8 2.0 95.9 90.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 16.3 17.4 20.0 2.2 95.9 90.8 14.6 15.5 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 18.5 19.2 20.0 2.3 97.1 92.7 16.6 17.3 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 5 95 100 13.4 14.3 17.7 1.5 91.1 87.2 11.8 12.8 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 14.6 15.6 17.7 1.7 92.6 89.1 13.6 14.0 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 13.3 14.4 15.9 1.7 95.5 90.4 12.3 13.0 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 16.5 17.2 19.9 2.0 94.9 88.9 15.0 15.7 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 8.9 9.7 15.9 2.0 95.7 92.2 7.8 8.2 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 15.9 17.0 18.2 1.9 93.6 90.7 14.5 15.2 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 15.7 16.7 16.5 1.9 95.1 91.2 14.5 15.0 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 5 95 100 15.6 16.5 17.4 1.9 94.5 91.6 14.2 15.1 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 3 97 100 13.5 14.6 16.8 2.0 95.7 92.6 12.4 13.0 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 14.8 15.4 16.2 1.7 93.7 90.5 13.8 14.1 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 9 91 100 16.6 17.1 17.7 1.6 92.3 87.1 15.2 15.9 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 17.1 17.4 18.7 1.6 92.6 88.5 15.8 16.3 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 16.2 17.2 17.0 1.8 93.5 90.2 14.8 15.1 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 16.9 17.7 19.2 1.7 93.1 85.8 15.4 16.3 16.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 6 94 100 14.3 15.0 15.6 1.8 94.9 89.9 13.0 13.7 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 16.3 17.1 20.1 2.3 96.7 92.4 14.9 15.5 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 10.1 11.0 13.9 1.9 95.7 91.2 8.9 9.4 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 6 94 100 15.8 16.6 19.2 1.9 94.1 90.0 14.5 15.0 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 15.9 16.3 19.1 1.6 92.7 84.6 14.5 15.2 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 15.7 16.6 19.9 2.4 96.6 93.2 14.4 14.8 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 5 95 100 16.3 17.1 17.7 1.8 94.7 89.6 14.5 15.6 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 6 94 100 15.7 16.5 18.1 1.6 93.3 87.7 14.7 15.0 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 14.6 15.3 16.0 1.6 90.2 88.0 13.5 13.9 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 16.0 16.6 18.8 1.7 93.9 87.9 14.4 15.2 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 14.7 15.2 18.1 1.5 91.2 86.9 13.7 14.2 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 6 94 100 13.2 13.8 15.0 1.9 95.1 90.4 11.6 12.4 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 16.6 17.7 20.3 2.3 96.7 92.0 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------