***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2012.-22.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 0.0 19.8 1.6 81.0 71.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 16.8 17.8 20.2 1.9 82.2 73.8 14.5 15.8 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 18.9 20.1 20.0 1.8 86.1 75.4 16.3 17.8 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 14.0 14.6 17.8 1.0 73.9 65.7 12.2 13.0 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 15.2 16.0 17.7 1.2 80.1 69.6 12.7 14.1 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 14.2 14.7 15.9 1.3 77.7 71.6 11.8 12.8 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 17.2 17.7 20.1 1.7 80.5 71.7 14.9 16.3 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 9.3 10.0 15.8 1.4 82.0 72.1 7.4 8.1 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 16.2 17.5 18.1 1.5 83.1 72.8 14.2 14.9 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 16.3 17.0 16.4 1.4 83.2 72.3 13.8 14.9 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 15.9 16.5 17.4 1.4 83.5 73.2 13.5 14.9 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 13.9 14.7 16.8 1.5 82.3 73.7 11.3 13.0 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 15.2 16.0 16.1 1.2 79.4 71.9 12.8 13.8 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 16.9 17.4 17.8 1.4 81.4 72.4 14.5 15.9 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 17.3 17.8 18.9 1.2 77.1 68.8 15.5 16.3 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 16.4 17.0 17.0 1.3 77.8 71.6 14.1 15.1 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 17.8 18.3 19.3 1.4 78.6 68.5 16.0 17.0 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 14.7 15.3 15.6 1.4 83.2 72.9 12.1 13.8 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 16.5 17.8 20.2 2.0 84.2 75.8 14.9 15.6 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 10.1 10.9 13.9 1.4 79.6 70.7 8.1 9.0 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 16.3 17.0 19.1 1.5 80.8 71.7 13.8 15.2 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 16.3 17.1 19.3 1.4 79.9 70.2 14.3 15.1 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 16.2 17.3 19.9 2.0 87.1 77.5 14.1 15.3 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 16.4 17.5 17.7 1.5 84.7 73.8 14.6 15.4 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 16.4 16.9 18.1 1.1 74.2 67.0 14.0 15.2 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 14.9 15.5 16.1 1.2 77.0 69.0 13.1 14.1 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 16.8 17.4 18.9 1.3 76.2 68.2 14.2 15.4 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 15.2 15.4 18.2 1.0 73.7 66.9 12.7 14.2 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 13.8 14.6 15.0 1.5 83.2 73.1 11.6 12.8 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 17.3 18.2 20.4 1.9 84.3 75.1 15.0 16.2 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------