***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2012.-15.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 9999.0 0.0 19.7 1.8 86.1 76.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 16.6 18.4 20.0 2.0 88.1 78.6 13.6 14.5 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 18.7 19.7 19.9 2.1 89.0 80.3 15.8 16.8 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 13.6 14.3 17.7 1.4 85.2 72.4 11.1 11.9 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 15.3 16.0 17.7 1.6 86.4 75.1 13.0 13.9 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 13.5 14.8 15.9 1.7 88.5 76.0 12.0 12.6 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 16.4 18.3 19.9 1.8 87.0 76.3 14.6 15.1 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 9.1 10.0 15.9 1.8 87.5 77.5 7.3 8.0 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 16.1 17.0 18.1 1.8 87.4 77.1 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 15.9 17.3 16.4 1.7 87.3 77.0 14.1 15.2 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 15.8 16.5 17.4 1.8 87.7 77.7 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 13.7 14.9 16.9 1.9 88.1 78.9 11.8 12.9 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 15.3 16.0 16.2 1.7 85.5 76.9 13.3 14.0 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 16.9 18.1 17.7 1.6 84.8 76.1 15.0 15.7 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 17.3 18.2 18.7 1.6 87.5 75.5 15.7 16.7 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 16.5 17.3 17.0 1.7 86.9 77.1 14.2 15.2 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 17.0 18.0 19.1 1.5 83.7 71.7 14.9 15.6 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 14.4 15.6 15.6 1.7 87.9 77.5 12.4 13.4 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 16.2 18.4 20.1 2.2 89.1 80.5 14.2 14.7 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 10.2 10.6 13.9 1.7 85.7 77.0 8.8 9.4 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 15.9 17.3 19.0 1.7 87.5 76.1 13.7 15.0 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 16.0 17.1 19.0 1.4 83.2 71.4 13.9 14.6 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 16.2 17.5 19.8 2.3 90.0 82.1 13.6 14.8 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 16.7 17.4 17.7 1.8 88.2 78.1 14.6 15.6 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 16.0 17.3 17.9 1.4 84.9 72.4 13.8 15.0 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 14.6 15.1 16.1 1.5 82.8 74.3 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 15.8 16.6 18.7 1.5 84.3 73.2 13.5 14.5 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 15.2 15.7 18.2 1.5 85.8 74.1 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 13.1 14.1 15.0 1.7 87.4 77.7 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 16.8 18.4 20.2 2.2 88.7 80.1 14.5 15.0 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------