***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2012.-08.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 9999.0 0.0 21.2 3.3 98.1 90.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 16.7 18.5 21.8 3.7 99.4 91.8 15.1 15.7 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 8 92 100 18.9 22.3 21.5 3.7 99.1 93.2 16.8 17.7 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 13.8 18.0 18.9 2.6 95.5 88.3 11.9 13.0 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 15.4 17.4 19.0 3.0 96.3 90.3 13.9 14.7 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 13 87 100 14.0 15.8 16.9 2.8 95.6 90.1 12.9 13.4 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 16.7 19.0 21.5 3.5 98.8 90.3 15.6 16.0 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 8 92 100 9.2 13.3 17.3 3.3 97.7 92.3 7.7 8.3 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 16.4 19.1 19.5 3.2 96.9 91.6 15.0 15.3 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 16.5 18.2 17.9 3.1 97.5 92.0 14.7 15.4 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 16.5 17.3 18.7 3.2 97.1 91.9 14.7 15.0 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 14.1 15.4 18.2 3.3 97.7 92.8 12.7 13.3 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 7 93 100 15.7 16.4 17.2 2.8 94.1 90.6 14.3 14.7 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 17.0 18.0 19.1 2.9 96.5 89.8 15.5 16.3 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 18.2 19.2 19.8 2.7 95.7 88.9 16.0 16.4 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 17.0 18.4 18.1 2.9 96.0 91.0 15.2 15.7 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 17.4 19.5 21.0 3.2 98.6 88.8 15.4 16.2 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 14.7 16.9 17.0 3.1 98.2 92.0 13.2 14.0 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 9 91 100 16.4 18.6 21.9 3.8 99.7 93.0 15.1 15.3 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 10 90 100 11.0 11.9 15.4 3.3 97.8 91.6 9.2 10.0 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 16.6 18.7 20.5 3.2 97.9 91.3 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 16.2 17.7 20.7 3.0 96.5 88.1 14.7 15.2 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 9 91 100 15.8 17.7 21.5 3.8 99.7 93.6 14.5 15.0 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 16.9 18.8 19.1 3.1 98.4 91.7 15.1 15.6 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 10 90 100 16.3 18.3 19.3 2.8 95.8 88.9 14.9 15.5 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 10 90 100 15.4 16.1 17.1 2.6 92.6 88.7 13.8 14.4 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 16.5 19.6 20.2 3.0 96.5 89.3 14.6 15.3 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 15.7 16.6 19.2 2.6 95.6 88.4 13.8 14.5 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 13.7 17.8 16.4 3.1 98.5 91.7 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 17.1 19.5 22.0 3.8 99.3 92.7 15.4 16.1 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------